Bigger, food-led and family-friendly pubs will come to dominate the market in the years following the introduction of a smoking ban in England and Wales, say industry watchers.
In its latest report on the pub industry, research group Market & Business Development (MDB) forecasts that pub numbers will decline three per cent to 56,230 by 2011.
The fall will be driven largely by those smaller, wet-led outlets unable to compete under the forthcoming smoking ban.
However, MDB argues that market conditions for public houses and bars are "relatively positive in the UK", despite the recent decline in consumer spending growth.
Average annual UK pub turnover will hit £304,863 by 2011, according to MDB, equivalent to overall growth of nine per cent in real terms compared with 2006.
This is likely to be sustained by the expansion of food-led operations, while MDB says multiple operators are keen to increase average spend per visit, "utilising attractions such as catering and accommodation, as well as family facilities in order to attract greater levels of expenditure".
By 2011, MDB expects pub food turnover to reach £4bn at 2006 prices, representing real term growth of six per cent, compared with 2006.
Food sales will represent 23 per cent of pub turnover by 2011, compared with 21 per cent in 2006, it added.