Experience key to survival

A thoughtful article Mr Willock which certainly identifies some of the factors behind the demise of ‘bricks & mortar’ retailers. You are also right to highlight that there’s nothing quite like the ambience and ‘craick’ of the pub.

But the affection which many people still hold for the pub may not be enough to preserve the institution in anything like its current numbers. The pressure on consumers’ disposable income and discretionary spend is relentless and growing, and consumers are being forced into making choices they would not make voluntarily.

Mr & Mrs Average are worried sick about how they will pay the mortgage this month.

RE: Experience key to survival

"The pressure on consumers’ disposable income and discretionary spend is relentless and growing, and consumers are being forced into making choices they would not make voluntarily." - Arthur M

Yet the huge, unprecidented rise in pub closures began in 2007 - a full year before the current recession started as the 'credit crunch'.

Traditionally the high street always suffers in stormy financial weather. But pubs were regarded as a safe harbour businesswise because drinkers have always reserved a little cash to drown their sorrows there.

On-trade history since the 70's clearly demonstrates that pubs always bear recessions well, right up until this one.

We can either blame it on a sudden, overnight change in customers' social drinking habits, or ask ourselves what occurred in 2007 that could account for this dramatic pub carnage?

RE: Experience key to survival

"You see it did not necessarily start in 2007, thats just when it showed" - Ampshireroyal

It's true pubs have occasionally waned in popularity. In recent times the mass arrival of TV in the 1960s caused a temporary drop off that sent waves of panic through the industry, and there was a gradual erosion in trade throughout the 80's and 90's.

However since the new millennium pubs had fought their way back to health and by 2006 were more popular than ever, with The Publican reporting overall turnover at a FIVE-YEAR-PEAK with continued growth forcast until at least 2011.

As we entered 2007 the City's entheusiasm for the pub sector remained insatiable. Pubco shares were described as "the darlings of the stock market" with eager investors snapping up Punch shares at £14 each. Following the poor showing of the 1990s the turnaround in this industry had been nothing short of remarkable.

Then towards the end of 2007 the industry was clearly in deep trouble. The widely predicted influx of new drinkers had failed to materialise and the long exodus of this industry's life blood, it's rank-and-file customers, was already underway.

Pub insolvencies were already up 600%, a number that would TREBLE in the following year to EIGHTEEN TIMES former rates, while those prized industry shares were nosediving into the cellar with Punch trading at a meagre 35 pence.

RE: Experience key to survival

"Please Pete ~ tell us what your key to survival is in 2012!" - Chris M

Frankly Chris the only advice I can offer is to follow your own lead and get out fast, while you still can.

It may have escaped your notice but our pubs sold 139 million fewer pints last year and haemorrhaged 9000 jobs. Following the drop in trade over the previous four years that is a complete disaster. Yet we sugar-coat it as great news because it was fractionally better than the year before.

As a nation we are facing at least 10 more years of austerity, with even more price hikes and legislation to come. Around 60% of what's left of our pubs won't survive that unless we can offer something better for the better-spending HALF of our customers we kicked out five years ago.

Take the blinkers off and look around you. This trade is dying. That's why the ban is as even more relevant now than when it was first imposed.

With respect Chris you were pushing the same "Crisis? What crisis?" mantra back in 2007. When I stuck my neck out and predicted closures of approximately 1000+, 2000, and approaching 3000 pubs respectively in the coming 3 years you joined in the howls of derision coming from those starry-eyed souls who had 'embraced' the smoking ban and blindly anticipated further growth.

Remember there was no hint nor prospect of recession at that time. With turnover booming my estimates seemed unthinkable.

Now although I have every right to beat my chest whilst whooping in moral vindication I'll simply say I've yet to receive any acknowledgement from those detractors that my figures were uncannily accurate.

Your own town centre pub is doing okay. That much is good news but hardly concrete evidence the pub game is back in good shape. It isn't. Pubs are STILL closing at a rate that spells financial misery for many to come.

No amount of smug complacence is gonna change that. If the industry continues with this head-in-the-sand pretence my worst predictions WILL come to pass - as unlikely as that may seem right now.

You can serve up bucketloads of 'excellence' but it won't help any. The very best pubs remaining could not compete with multiple rivals selling beer at half their break-even point. In the last quarter JDW was selling Carling at £1.79 a pint alongside Theaksons Bitter at £1.49, and mild for a mere £1.19.

North of Watford a decent two-course meal for TWO can be had in most regions for less than a fiver. Look at Taybarns bargain offering, and they're expanding into the south. You can't compete with that without comitting fiscal suicide.

That is the future of the Great British Pub. ASH lit the flames but people like yourself have unwittingly helped stoke the funeral pyre. Scoff all you like but, once again, don't say you weren't warned.

You who have sown the wind shall reap the whirlwind.

RE: Experience key to survival

It's sure getting harder to earn a crust but we all know that. Experience is obviously important, knowing what works and what doesn't. In the post code area we are in (GL19 very rural but with 3 large urban conurbations within 10 miles) 5 of the 8 freehouses are for sale and it is unlikely more than 1 will remain as a licenced premises. Of the tenanted 4 of the 7 are available for let and 1 is for sale. It is becoming increasingly difficult to attract the townsfolk out to us particularly in the winter months.

I'm happy to tell you hat my plans are to make sure I'm here in 12 months. Keep my overheads at minimum and wait for Spring. Work my proverbials off for 6 months and put enough money away to last next winter, again.

If anyone has any innovative ideas for a country pub to increase winter trade without risking much financially I'm all eyes.........