Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

New research claims shock proof that the smoking ban has been the main cause of pub closures in the UK.
CGA data has been manipulated by CR Consulting to reveal a striking correlation in the rate of closures in
England, Scotland and Wales following the smoking bans in each country.
Previously, the different start times of the ban have obscured the similarity of the decline across Britain, causing commentators to look to other reasons for pubs closing.
Now, the report says "the smoking ban is demonstrably the most significant cause of pub closures".
"While there is significant variation in the trajectories of the pub estates before the ban there is an almost total correlation between the three GB lines after the ban. This indicates that they are affected by a strong common factor ­— the smoking ban.
"The correlation is in fact so close that the trend line for the three countries is identical."
The report predicts pub numbers will continue to fall, with another 1,700 to close in

60 replies - Last reply by Robert Feal-martinez, 09/09/2010 11:57:18

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Replies

Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

Paul agree totally, now try telling FP/GMB.

Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

Robert...I don't try ad have it both ways. I haven't denied pubs are closing at an increasing rate and it concerns me greatly that they do. Indeed I note this myself earlier when questioning the cause celebre of the smoking ban which happened some time previous and the new figures would suggest other factors are in play here. It is wrong to make a correlation to the number of pubs gaining from a smoking ban far out weighed by those closing as this seems to make a connection that those who don't smoke are not affected by the same issues as smokers, clearly this would be incorrect. Neither group lives in isolation. The growth of closures points to other factors and that should worry us all and make us ask the question "what is it that is the cause" and it is not now something that happened a few years ago I am afraid, it may have been in the past, but it is not now.

RE: Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

Paul Salvadori, I strongly disagree with your seeming assessment of "all factors" being treated as relatively equal. For an excellent analysis supporting the claims in this article please see historian/author Chris Snowdon's blog "Ban Damage" at:

http://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2010/09/ban-damage.html

I think that if you give it a fair reading you will see that the damage from the smoking ban so overwhelms other factors that to even mention them in the same breath simply serves as a distraction. You can see further evidence from the US if you wish on pages 13 through 18 of the freely available Stiletto at:

http://kuneman.smokersclub.com/PASAN/StilettoGenv5h.pdf

It's one-sided, but its facts are accurate and their presentation is honest. If you have any substantive criticisms please feel free to share them here: I am open about who I am, what my "competing interest" might be claimed to be, and I stand firmly behind every word that I write.

Michael J. McFadden,
Author of "Dissecting Antismokers' Brains"

RE: Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

Deleted repeat

RE: Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

There is of course evidence in abundance that the pro ban anti smoking establishment simply wish to ignore. Have a read of http://blog.iea.org.uk/?p=4222
( Institute of Economic Affairs).

What is also extremely worrying is the pay master for many, many anti smoking groups, the Roberts Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF), founded by Johnson and Johnson the biggest provider of smoking cessation products, has now turned their attention to Alcohol. Why would they do that, because they and other drug companies are developing quick fix (allegedly) drinking cessation drugs.

http://alcoholfacts.org/RWJfoundation.html

They have spent well over 1/4 billion dollars funding groups that appear to be innocent health campaigns, just like they did with tobacco. For those who just dismiss the smoking ban, be afraid the same campaign is targeting alcohol and food.

There are those in the Industry who said, 'there would never be a total smoking ban'. Do those same people want to be proved wrong 3 times.???

RE: Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

News Update

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/196288-700-pubs-closed-since-introduction-of-smoking-ban/

Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

It's history. Blame the pubcos. They didn't object to the ban. They probably thought it would help their trendy applications for REIT status.

Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

Mark,

Not every last woe of our trade is attributable to the Pubcos....You will note that I have never spoken out against Fairpint and why would I? I think the work that is being done to bring the anti-competitive nature of the tie to public attention is admirable and that the long road to legislation against it is one that can only be travelled if people with drive and determination to see the job through take up the cause; people like you. I do however have an issue with the growing insinuation from you and others that every single last issue we face as an industry is as a result of the pubcos and or the tie. It's misleading as is any suggestion that the tie is on the way out any time soon. There are a great many people out there who are in very desperate situations and I feel it is unhealthy to turn every debate into an opportunity to blame the tied model for their issues. Is the tie anti-competitive? Yes. Is it a low cost way to enter the business? Well yes in some cases it is as it happens. Does it work? In the main it would appear not. Does it need to be reformed before it's too late? Absolutely. Is it the sole reason for pub closures? No.

Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

Once again Jay I agree 100% have been saying this all along to much abuse.

Smoke ban 'is main cause' of pub losses

What a surprise ASH 'trash' the CRC report.(from Publican)

ASH claims smoking ban survey is 'misleading'

A leading anti-smoking charity has hit out at a study which claims the smoking ban is the main cause of pub closures in the UK.

Action on Smoking Health (ASH) called into question the report's validity, which found "an almost total correlation" in the introduction of the ban and the drop in the number of pubs in England, Scotland and Wales.

The report, compiled by CR Consulting, and commissioned by the Save Our Pubs & Clubs campaign, claimed that almost three years after the ban's introduction Scotland, Wales and England have seen between 7.1 and 7.6 per cent of their pubs close.

But Amanda Sandford, research manager ASH, said: "Despite claims to the contrary, there is no evidence of overall harm to the licensed trade."

"In fact, alcohol on-sales licences increased by five per cent in the first year following the smoking ban."

She claimed the survey was "misleading" and does not reflect the "reality of the licensed trade".

"True, many traditional pubs have closed, but more licensed premises have opened in recent years that now sell food as well as alcohol," she added

Now where did she get her 'facts' from.

Is Ms Sandford telling deliberate 'porkies' surely not.

UK alcohol sales rise to buck trend

The Institute of Alcohol Studies (IAS) has reported alcohol sales rose by 1.8% in the last financial year 2007/08, reversing the previous two years' fall in sales. However IAS notes that whilst beer sales have continued to fall, quantities of wine, spirits and cider have continued to rise as off premises sales rose by 2% but pub and other licensed premises sales fell by 7.4%.

What a dilemma who do we believe.

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