Brian Jacobs 14/11/2008 10:28:41 ![]() |
Greene King’s brave new pubco model > RE: Greene King’s brave new pubco model
Oh dear they have trotted out that dangerous concept that there should be annual rent increases linked to RPI. The reality is that rent can onl be measured relative to profit and believe it or not profit does not rise with RPI. The last twelve months with volumes falling, sales falling, beer increasing, operating costs increasing well beyond RPI, there has been an impact on profit. Would you believe it, it has gone down and yet is suggesting that the rent goes up by RPI. The GK concept is queeze the tenant as much as we can, whenever we can but let us put out press releases that look like we are the good guys..... do you know some people will believe it. |
Brian Jacobs 14/11/2008 10:22:14 ![]() |
County Estate trumpets hosts’ free-of-tie benefits > RE: County Estate trumpets hosts’ free-of-tie benefits
Interesting but horrifying to find that there is still a reference that rent could be equated to turnover. When will people wake up to the fact that although one requires turnover to achieve a profit it does no follow that profit exists because turnover exists. If the latter were true then no business should ever go bankrupt. |
Brian Jacobs 08/11/2008 11:40:51 ![]() |
Fair Pint clash with BBPA > RE: Fair Pint clash with BBPA
Millions poured into thousands of pubs... that is the equivalent to a couple of thousand per pub. What Mark Hastings seems to totally ignore is that with turnover down 10% and costs up 7-10% the rents being increased at RPI means that the tenants income will drop at least 50% and that is always assuming that the rent was based on realistic turnover and costs in the first palce. What Mark Hastings will not accept or address is that the average rent per pub does not allow the tenant a reasonable income. And as for Giles Thorley I will quote his predecessor.... he is off his trolley.... when it comes to gauging what his tenants earn. Mark Hastings need to get his pubcos to ensure that rents are properly calculated in whole detail, not spurious percentages, and that the calculation of rent takes account of the wet rent in such a manner as to prove conclusively that the tied tenant is not in a worse financial position than if they were free of tie. The fact is that he cannot do that and it is the reason for the statements he makes, he is seeking to hide the deception behind his rhetoric. Another issue is the fact that the value shown by pubcos for the pubs in their balance sheets have not reflected the dranatic fall in retail profitability. Why is this? Perhaps to register that fall as they rightly should to ensure that their Balance Sheet shows a "true and fair view" is that it could reveal the real danger and risk for shareholders, bondholders, lenders and creditors. This is another part of the hidden agenda.... keep talking... blame others... but hide the truth. |
Brian Jacobs 07/11/2008 15:46:12 ![]() |
'Punch tenants earn 70% above average wage' > RE: 'Punch tenants earn 70% above average wage'
According to the 2007 accounts the average rent was 28k. Now we all know that Punch base their rent on 50% of the tenants profit of 56k before rent. We also know that Punch have a great tendancy to overestimate turnover and margins and underestimate operating costs which mean that the profit before rent is often over estimated by 10% or more. We also know that in the last 12 months volumes and turnover have fallen 10% and costs, particularly fuel has increased by between 7% and 9% which together would cause a fall in the profit before rent of 20-25%. Staring with the figure of 56k for last year, deduct their optimism of 6k, and reduce that by 20% to 40k and then deduct the rent of 28k and what is left is.......!!!!! ...... 12k. Giles Thorley needs to get his head out of the clouds. Punch tenants do not earn 70% above average wage but more like 70% BELOW average wage. The next issue is that the accounts show that that the average pub is worth over 900k and yet it earns an average of 40k. That does not make sense, it would appear that those assets are grossly overvalued. |
Brian Jacobs 27/10/2008 16:23:20 ![]() |
Punch: strong cashflow nets 25% bonds buyback discount > RE: Punch: strong cashflow nets 25% bonds buyback discount
It is known that retail profits are down substantially as a result of lower throughput and higher operating costs. Retail profits per pub are likely to be down between 40% and 75% , depending on size. Since retail profit, excluding accessories such as intangible income, is the basis of property values they will need adjustment. It has been estimated that the property values of Punch could have fallen by half. If that is the case then the ratio of asset values to bonds is probably about 75%. Those bondholders in the buy-back scheme have come out of this quite well. I would not be so sure about the rest s.ince profits continue to fall and so does asset cover All that is needed now is for the company to put its Balance Sheet asset values in order and reflect the realisable values on a tangible asset basis; that means excluding the intangible asset streams. |
Brian Jacobs 27/10/2008 09:10:55 ![]() |
Pub beer sales down 8.1% > RE: Pub beer sales down 8.1%
The tie must go to allow the 25000 tied tenants to reduce their prices, compete and survive. And in addition all rents to be frozen, no RPI indexation and no increases for the next three years and then the pubs may..... just may.... survive. Also all this rubbish about Government intervention in the running of pubs should be scrapped or put off for three to five years and then look again. |
Brian Jacobs 24/10/2008 17:34:50 ![]() |
New pub crackdown...it gets worse > RE: New pub crackdown...it gets worse
How interesting to read that the APPBG with its report states that community pubs are essential to the wellbeing of this country and then goes on to say how this must be protected for the benefit of the community. This rubbish now recited is an insult to not only the pubs, the licensees and its employees but to the customer. How dare this bunch of MP's destroy the vary fabric of our society and communities. This is a classic case where the MP's and spokespersons reciting these insults should be identified, named and shamed in the local newspapers, local radio stations and all the pubs in the area where they live. This may be a country that allows freedom of speech but those people that have power and abuse their position must be shamed. |
Brian Jacobs 20/10/2008 10:04:05 ![]() |
Code is 'ridiculous and reckless' > RE: Code is 'ridiculous and reckless'
The government faced with higher unemployment must seek to find "jobsworth work" for as many people as they can, so they believe. The more ground workers mean more management, and ,more levels of management. Simple, that could lead to lower unemployment ! As for adopting any constructive solution such as less form filling, less beaurocracy, less legislation such as additional paid maternity leave for fathers and mothers this government cannot accept. Oh they may say they will help the small business but the real problem for the government is that they want to extend the nanny state because they seek to control every aspect of life. |
Brian Jacobs 20/10/2008 09:54:13 ![]() |
Tchenguiz sells Whitbread stake > RE: Tchenguiz sells Whitbread stake
I hope that when he reviews the past which has cost him a lot of money he will reflect on the prices that he paid. It would appear that some advisers have been talking up property prices knowing that he was wealthy. The reality is that pubs are only worth what they can generate as retail operations primarily because they invariably have restricted use. The danger is that some valuers include profit streams that should be excluded and try to ignore costs which should be included. "Adjusted" profit and excessive multiples leading to an unsupportable valuation has been the bane of the pub market. Lets hope that he seeks and obtains damages from those who have sought to distort the market for their own greed. |
Brian Jacobs 26/09/2008 16:52:52 ![]() |
Punch shares hit new record low > RE: Punch shares hit new record low
Surely the main problem is that asset values have in real terms fallen by at least 20% if not more. Should Punch break their securitisation covenants it is possible that the bondholders will find that their security may be worth substantially less than face value . The problem is that the Balance sheet does not reflect the market changes. |