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Rent Review help 14/11/2009 21:15:59  |
Punch to forecast profits for lessees > Punch to forecast profits for lessees
Given the cash Punch must spend om lawyers, one must assume that these forecasts are, in their view, genuine and therefore actionable. if not then they must be open to misrepresentation. There is clearly such a discrepnacy between this stuff and percieved reality there has to be an opportunity to get to the bottom of this. I have heard Giles say so many times that the problem is that their recruitment process has not managed to recruit a "reasonably competant operator" there is clearly a real opportunity to get to the bottom of this. Well done Punch, lets go the extra mile and publish the whole story of what you believe is possible so we can all learn, as your "partners" where we are going wrong. |
| Rent Review help 14/11/2009 21:15:59 |
Punch to forecast profits for lessees > Punch to forecast profits for lessees
Given the cash Punch must spend om lawyers, one must assume that these forecasts are, in their view, genuine and therefore actionable. if not then they must be open to misrepresentation. There is clearly such a discrepnacy between this stuff and percieved reality there has to be an opportunity to get to the bottom of this. I have heard Giles say so many times that the problem is that their recruitment process has not managed to recruit a "reasonably competant operator" there is clearly a real opportunity to get to the bottom of this. Well done Punch, lets go the extra mile and publish the whole story of what you believe is possible so we can all learn, as your "partners" where we are going wrong. |
| Rent Review help 13/11/2009 15:58:58 |
Punch to forecast profits for lessees > Punch to forecast profits for lessees
The rent options pays off if you achieve 230 barrels per year tied product. With a pub going from 180 to 167 barrels -8%, going for the rent vs discount option is betting on increased tied product t/o beyond 230 brls or around +40% - Brave! Assuming tied product sold at £3.00 per pint about £2.60 after vat then drinks revenue is 38 to 41% tied and 59 to 62% untied - wine, minerals, spirits etc..looks v odd. The more reasonable the beer price the more odd the untied looks. I doubt if the price of beer can absorb the rise in vat in 2010 if going for a 40%+ increase in sales. Unless the 40% increased turnover on tied product is entirely substitutional from untied an overall increase on beverages getting on for 100% is implied. Best bet might be to go for 0% discount on tied and turn it into a upper crust wine bar, but first make sure the untied products cannot be tied - they are usually untied by a "side letter". on costs Assuming 50% average margin on beverages and 60% on food and other items, after rent and leaseholders profit the business must run with a Cost base of £100K max, including rates, utilities, staff, repairs financing costs etc.. An interesting approach by Punch but such a forcast raises many questions and anomalies that one wonders if they actually believe their own spin and that these figures are actually achievable. They should publish the whole model including all their cost assumptions and particularly a staffing budget including rota hours, opening hours, kitchen hours staff pay rates and so on. If they did that then maybe we would all learn something about how the "Reasonably Competant Operator" runs his pub and finally discover where we have all been going wrong. Punch frequently say that the problem is their leasholders do not know how to run a business here is a perfect opportunity for them to demonstrate what they mean. |
| Rent Review help 13/10/2009 16:48:23 |
Punch to drop estate value by £600m > Punch to drop estate value by £600m
Hi Guys - back on land after 6 months at sea and there seems to be no change on the Pubco Front. 600M write down is, I think, about what I calculated 6 months ago - surprised it has taken so long to work through. Still no national forum for lessees as the agendas seem to be so diaparate. I note the beercott drive but until there are a substantial number of lessees prepared to put their heads over the parapet it will be "strike on three" "one, two, two and a half..." Punch trading results are tomorrow and will be interesting. It riles me that the Marcap of the company was less than 100m last december and is now seven times that. An opportunity has gone missing to buy the company and sort it out. But what goes up can come dowm and the future message has to be there is no value in these shares until the lessees are happy and reasonably profitable and when that happens one can begin to work out what is the residual value for investors in bonds and shares. |
| Rent Review help 20/05/2009 15:31:48 |
Tied pub tenants converge on Westminster > Tied pub tenants converge on Westminster
I am with you on spirit guys. I am afraid I cant come as I am up in scotland running my other business to try to keep things afloat. Best of luck with everything. |
| Rent Review help 12/04/2009 23:58:47 |
AB InBev confirms UK management team > RE: AB InBev confirms UK management team
yawn nobody ever says anything like what is supposed to be quoted here. A PR drone has been directed to come up with a quote while the "great man" is down the pub with his cronies. All approved cos nobody cares - fed to the press - published- job done. how sad. These people hope we will be impressed by their new status in the industry. FThey have their 5 minutes of ..... well we will see. |
| Rent Review help 10/04/2009 23:24:14 |
Making the pubco model work > Making the pubco model work
true but the point of owning the shares from a leaseholder point of view is to control policy re dividends etc.. no dividend = no income no capital growth potential = no speculator interest = no share price. bond holders can swap debt for equity to their hearts content but they are swapping a bond return in the hope of making an equity return. At the end of the day the leaseholders lay the golden eggs, generate the cash and could repay the debt eventually, no one else can so it would be in everyones interest for bond holders to do a deal with the leasholders so they get paid and leaseholders get their pubs seems an obvious way out of the current pickle, not ideal but workable and doable and potentially quite beneficial. This is a very different situation to a typical FTSE administration as the business is quite strong but the model is not. This has not happened bfore as far as I know but if you think out of the box then this could work without needing any special legislation etc.. |
| Rent Review help 10/04/2009 22:45:09 |
Making the pubco model work > Making the pubco model work
Share price is a function of demand and supply. If you buy most of the shares and are not prepared to sell, then the price will soar as people who want to speculate will only be able to buy a limited supply. The idea is to make it clear that speculators need not apply as the pubco is now a mutual or going that way then only leaseholders can benefit from the business as the business model is no dividend but all profit ploughed into reducing debt and prices to leaseholders if you want to buy shares on this basis go ahead but I cant see why anyone would want to. I made an accidental profit buying punch last week and believe that the 6 month results will be presented as positive which will set the shares off up again more is the pity. |
| Rent Review help 10/04/2009 21:38:05 |
RE: City Diary: 9 April > RE: City Diary: 9 April
please explain the advantage of reit status both Punch and Enterprise have looked at it and shelved for the time being. What does it mean? I ask only for information being a duffer in such matters. |
| Rent Review help 10/04/2009 20:39:46 |
Making the pubco model work > Making the pubco model work
You make a valid point BUT regard the debt as a Mortgage already in place fixed rate at about 7.6% - no fund raising required just pay the rent and buy beer from the central purchasing operation hopefully at more reasonable prices and in 2032 or so the debt will have been paid and everyone owns their own pub. As a mutual there will be no shareholders wanting dividends - or the shareholders will be the leaseholders so any profit will be retained within the mutual. At the end of the day the bondholders could end up calling the shots and they want they money back. While between now and 2032 you might end up paying a bit more for your pub freehold than you just might if you can cut a deal, raise money etc.. if if if . Bondholders will know the only way they will get paid is through the folk generating the cash to do so. They have no interest in running pubs so the deal would be: lets work a deal where we pay the bondholders back and when paid we own the pub no one else need apply it is leaseholders and bondholders only no shreholders, dividends, multi million share options pensions etc.. That would motivate me more than the prospect of paying rent forever going up with RPI etc.. etc.. The only folk to whom the pubcos have any potential value is the leaseholders and the burden of debt reinforces that. The central function of the mutual would be chartered to manage the relationship and take advantage of opportunities overtime but strictly in the interest of the leaseholders. Utopia maybe but I think it could work and would have the advantage of having a precreated organisation which touches every pub at least every week. |