News Article Comments : Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

Graham Allman

Shares in UK pub companies are back on the agenda of institutional investors, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch.

Following an investor conference for the pub industry earlier this week, organised by Merrill, the broker said it was time for investors to buy back into the sector.

It said: "Pub stocks are back on investor radars. Overall the outlook is brighter for the industry in 2010 with trading recovering, regulatory concerns back to historical levels and property values having bottomed out.

“The focus is on trading. A recovery could come faster than anticipated with an economic upturn, boost from the World Cup and improved cost outlook.”

Merrill said that Enterprise Inns and Punch Taverns were both buys since they both traded at low price-earnings ratios. It said Enterprise could resume paying a dividend next year.

Enterprise rose 5.6p to 127p, while Mitchells & Butlers rose 8.3p to 287p.

Marston's, which Merrill said was a good recovery play with dividend yields of 6.6%,

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RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

Never been off my "radar" , but then what do I know ? Not good news for the "doomsayers" amongst you, only happy when miserable eh !!!!

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RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

I seem to recall you recommending buy at 200 Graham. I kinda guest one would have lost one's shirt had one done so. Just a temporary upward blip. Once the city again realise the Pubco spin machine is in overdrive about new leases etc, which will achieve nothing the shares will go south again.

This post replies to Graham Allman > RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

 

RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

Bob , i did buy and sold at a profit. Values go up and they go down , in general the stock market is in good health as is the pub business ( no better and no worse than other small businesses).

This post replies to Robert Feal-Martinez > RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

 

RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

You know what they say Graham comparing bad with bad, doesn't make it good.

This post replies to Graham Allman > RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

 

RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

But what when you turn it into a profit ?

This post replies to Robert Feal-Martinez > RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

 

RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

"regulatory concerns back to historical levels" That's a good one.

This post replies to Graham Allman > RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

 

RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

Bob, the avarice of the intermediary never ceases to amaze. The short termism of the GA ilk are symptomatic of what ails our industry. It takes time to develop a people business such as a pub. An agent has only one function. To persuade a potential buyer that he is cleverer than the present encumbent. That is it. I believe selling roses in restaurants bears more dignity and gravitas.

This post replies to Robert Feal-Martinez > RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

 

Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

Let's get to the point here. Merrill Lynch acted as bookrunner in the rights issue by Punch where investors were fleeced at £1. I would guess that Merrills perhaps feel that a bit of a push might give an exit point to some its punters and then they are all square. Just a guess

ML don't really cover the sector and Merrills most famously filed to forecast its own demise of course. More informed analysts retain a sell on Punch and Enterprise and buys on managed groups (for the most part).

S&P downgraded Enterprise this week although the outlook remained 'stable'. Most ships are stable on the seabed of course. The pubco stocks are volatile on newsflow and that creates good short term opportunities - long and short. There's nothing fundamentally good about the pubco model for the future but technical traders are making money in the stocks. The current retracement of the share prices towards long term 200 day averages is nothing that wasn't seen by experienced traders. The trend is down however - the 20 days averages sank below the 200 day for both Punch and Enterprise late in the autumn and there will be no clear long term buy signal until that position reverses itself.

Note that profit taking in Enterprise started yesterday at a SP resistance level of 129p and has continued today. Not thrilling I know but traders driving the SP's are looking at the same sort of information I'm describing. Don't read too much into ML's buy note.

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RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

"Short Termism" my dear Gilbert, in my case spans some 44 years including "years afore the mast" at the helm of many a good pub. Cheeky young puppy.

This post replies to Gilbert Bank > RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

 

RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

Graham - Tread carefully with the maritime metaphors - they tripped Ted up the other week.

This post replies to Graham Allman > RE: Pub stocks 'back on investor radar'

 

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