What do the alcohol death stats really show?

A wise man once said "statistics can be made to prove anything - even the truth".

The point being that if you choose them carefully enough you can apply statistics to back any argument of your choice.

Thus last week Don Shenker, chief executive of pressure group Alcohol Concern, chose to use statistics showing a decline in alcohol-related deaths to back his belief that drink should be more expensive for everyone.

Shenker's logic is that alcohol deaths dipped in 2009 due to the recession. He believes that because people have less cash in their pockets they spent less on booze and as a result fewer people died.

It is a worryingly simplistic way of looking at things. After all, the people who died in 2009 - all 8,664 of them, down from a record 9,031 in the preceding 12 months - will likely have succumbed after years of drinking, not just one year of bingeing. The statistics show that the highest alcohol death rates are among men in the 55 to 74 age range. So the chances are they have been drinking for several decades before succumbing to an alcohol-related illness.

Unsurprisingly, the Office for National Statistics data also shows that the lowest rates of alcohol deaths are among those aged 15 to 34. The exact same group that would be most likely to buy the cheap alcohol that health preachers such as Alcohol Concern often refer to.

No matter then that drinking rates are going down or indeed that drinking in pubs is getting more and more expensive, thanks to the numerous factors that we write about in these pages on a weekly basis. These are statistics that the likes of Alcohol Concern happily turn a blind eye to.

Who's right?

So what should we make of them? If Shenker is wrong to suggest alcohol death rates are the result of a recessionary blip is it equally wrong to suggest the dip is due to people getting the message about alcohol harm?

Jeremy Beadles, chief executive of the Wine and Spirit Trade Association, tried to put a positive spin on things - not easy where death rates are concerned.

"It suggests the message about the risks of excessive alcohol consumption is getting through and reinforces the need for targeted action to tackle those groups most at risk of alcohol misuse," he said.

The British Beer & Pub Association took a similar view.

"These figures are further confirmation of the significant falls in total alcohol consumption in recent years, and confirm that binge-drinking is also down," said chief executive Brigid Simmonds. "These are real signs that the sensible drinking message is hitting home."

Two sides of a debate using the same statistics to back their arguments.

So where does it leave us? We can draw our own conclusions from the statistics below, but even then we should tread with caution.

We started with a quote so why not finish with one too. It was American Professor Aaron Levenstein who once said: "Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."
Office for National Statistics - Alcohol Deaths

• In 2009 more men died from alcohol-related causes than women - 5,690 compared to 2,974.

• You are most likely to die from an alcohol-related disease if you live in the North West, which has a mortality rate of 22.5 people per 100,000

• You are half as likely to succumb to an alcohol-related death in the East of England, where the rate is 11.4

• The only alcohol death rate to increase in 2009 was among men aged 75 and above. All other rates were down.