Will war have an effect on pubs?

These are tough times for the industry. In recent years pub operators, and the leisure sector at large, have faced a series of trading challenges.

The BSE crisis and the foot-and-mouth epidemic ravaged rural businesses up and down the country. It also saw millions of would-be tourists turn away from the UK and seek alternative holiday destinations.

The terrorist attacks in America on September 11, 2001, had a profound effect on trade, especially in London. Once more people stopped travelling. The UK economy is starting to stutter and many pub operators are feeling the pinch. As the threat of conflict against Iraq looms on the horizon, thePublican.com speaks to a clutch of trade figures to assess the impact of war on the pub sector.

Ian Payne, chief executive, Laurel Pub Company​

It's inconceivable that a war will have a negative effect on our neighbourhood pubs. It's likely that if pictures appear on the television of American missiles and so on people will want to get down to their community pubs and talk about it.

The high street is so tough for pubs at the moment a war is not going to help matters. It's not the same situation: you don't get people going along to chat like they do in the local pubs.

But I think the problem of supply and demand on the high street is a much bigger issue for the trade. Those going to be worst affected by the war are the Iraqi people.

Derek Andrew, managing director, Pathfinder Pubs - managed arm of Wolverhampton and Dudley ​

We are only 15 per cent exposed to the high street so my gut feeling is we wouldn't experience a significant change in trading.

Our trade is more determined by the issues relating to the economy and consumer demand than anything happening in the Middle East. In times of strife community pubs are always going to be as popular as ever.

Peter Linacre, managing director, Massive Pub Company​

I don't see it affecting trade out in the suburbs but I feel that terrorism is a greater concern for us. I think we have some hotel rooms that may be affected just like during the Gulf War.

Karen Kelshaw, spokeswoman, British Beer and Pub Association​ If war is declared we don't expect there will be too much of an impact on the trade, if anything it might actually create a community spirit where people might want to go to the pub to talk about what's happening.

Bob Cartwright, communications director, Six Continents Retail​

It's very difficult to speculate. All the indications are that there will be a war. But with so much uncertainty about what will happen it is difficult to predict what impact it will have on trade.

Tony Payne, chief executive, Federation of Licensed Victuallers Associations​ It depends on the area but pubs will have to strengthen their security. Pubs have been blown up in the past.

Licensees should make sure that staff are trained to look out for any problems. If pubs are situated where there is a concentration of army and navy people then they could suffer. But in general more people will come to the pub so that they have someone to talk to and share their problems.

Francis Patten, commercial director, Punch Retail​

History shows us that pubs form a natural meeting place for people to discuss issues of the day during times of turmoil. If we do go to war with Iraq then I don't anticipate that there will be any negative effect on trade.