I predict…
So what does the future hold for the industry, then? Hamish Champ makes his predictions on The Publican Newspaper's 30th Birthday.
Consolidation, smoking bans, licensing reform...what does the future hold for the industry? We reproduce below the fortune cookie predictions of famous South London clairvoyant and professional octogenarian Gypsy Rosé who, after having had her wrinkled, henna-stained palm crossed with two pieces of silver, an old copy of Newsweek and a year's supply of Thunderbird, lays bare three scenarios as to how the industry might look 30 years hence, ranked in descending order of disaster...but remember, it's just for fun!
The Good
"Elite City analysts and brokers bemoan the demise of the privately-owned pubco, at a huge farewell party thrown at the company's headquarters somewhere in the Midlands. After drinking themselves into oblivion on a range of vintage alcopops, each worth hundreds of pounds, none of the 'teenage scribblers' - most of them actually well into their 30s - make it onto the specially-chartered airbus next morning taking them back to London. Shares in the investment houses for which they work collapse over fears surrounding their failure to return to the office.
"Elsewhere the country's 38,000 government-owned pubs are required to provide rooms dedicated to showing satellite TV programming. Since terrestrial TV ceased broadcasting a few years ago the influence of the satellite lobby has become all-powerful, persuading the state-owned Public House Company to install millions of pounds worth of equipment throughout its estate and requiring customers watch at least half an hour of Pro-Celebrity Wrestling every day.
"The Liberal Democrat government in England revamps the licensing system for all on-trade premises selling intoxicating liquor. It introduces a swipe card, to be renewed every six months, which features a silicon chip containing all the licensee's details and onto which the authorities may imprint any 'transgressions' via a terminal in council offices. Local authority officials describe the move as "a vast improvement on the previous, long-winded and frankly onerous procedure brought in by a previous government". The Beer & Brewing Corporation, which represents staff working in the country's pubs and the two remaining UK brewers, calls the new card 'Orwellian cobblers'."
The Bad
"The Conservatives, in power since their landslide election victory of 2025, finally roll back legislation implemented following the Great Binge Drinking Horror of 2013, which prohibited the production, sale and consumption of beers with an ABV of more than two and a half per cent.
"The move opens the way for 'regional brewers', virtually extinct 15 years ago, to re-emerge, dust off their mash tuns and start trading at the UK's 15 out-of-town Farmer Giles' Markets. The liberalisation means little, however, since with excise duty for the almost forgotten brew known as 'real ale' is set at 500 per cent with bar prices starting at £55 for a standard 25ml shot glass, few people can afford to drink the stuff.
"The government also reveals it will privatise the country's pub estate, currently comprising 27,000 outlets, by 2037. Labour nationalised the UK's pubs and bars in 2021.
"Smoking in pubs is allowed again after an outright ban lasting nearly a quarter of a century, but research suggests the practice makes people feel 'sick as a dog' and nobody bothers much taking it up again.
"The country's only supermarket chain, meanwhile, is being 'encouraged' by the new administration to stop its recently-introduced practice of giving away cases of alcohol free with every full tank of petrol they sell through their own forecourts."
The Ugly
"Smoking, already banned in public, is to be further regulated by the Healthy Party government. Those proposing to take up the habit will be required to hold an approved 'licence to inhale'.
"Along with the UK's remaining brewer, US investment banks - owners of 98 per cent of the country's 12,000 pubs and bars - vigorously resist demands that beers, lagers, spirits and wines be removed from the nation's shelves and bar tops. A government spokesman will not be drawn on how the tax authorities would make up the duty shortfall in the event prohibition comes into force.
"Consumption in the on-trade in recent years has fallen to levels not seen since the 1750 Gin Act, with the government making daily physical exercise compulsory for adults over 18 and running ad campaigns showing graphic photographs of internal organs damaged by alcohol abuse.
"The country's supermarket, MegaMart, however, continues to sell cases of beer and wine for less than the price of a daily newspaper, calling their approach to alcohol retailing 'in line with consumer focus group research'.
"City types also call on the government to allow them to re-open in town centre areas and high streets. Pubs were banned from operating in these urban zones five years ago amid concerns that their presence was detrimental to the 'fibre of the nation' and now operate in large commercial zones formerly known as 'trading estates'."
