Learn smoke lessons now
This week the Morning Advertiser takes a small group of licensees to Ireland to learn first-hand about the effects of the smoking ban.
The trip will, we hope, provide a wealth of practical tips for these licensees and we will share our findings in the magazine in the coming weeks.
The impending ban is both a threat and an opportunity. And there will be winners and losers.For those that fail to think ahead and do what they can to mitigate the effects, there is the prospect of reduced sales and profits. For licensees who take on board the smoke-ban damage limitation lessons, there is the prospect of increased sales and new customers (even if some of them are smokers who have decided your pub offers the best external smoking facilities in the neighbourhood).
In Scotland, the smoke ban is still in its early days and the toughest test, the winter weather, lies ahead. But already a wealth of information is emerging.
There's no doubt the forthcoming smoke ban will prove a fundamental challenge to the traditional tenanted and leased pub. A recent survey by the Scottish Licensed Trade Association found that wet trade fell by 11% in the months after the ban. The response to this survey was a relatively small 300 pubs. It's likely to have picked up those licensed premises worst affected - and therefore, in all likelihood, most disgruntled. But it's a fairly reliable indication of what will happen to your business if it is wet-led and it has been impossible to provide decent al fresco smoking areas.
Even a well-resourced managed operator like JD Wetherspoon is not emerging unscathed from the Scottish ban. The company invested an average £40,000 per pub to prepare for the ban and benefited, like the rest of the trade in Scotland, from a buoyant first month. But sales now are down 0.3%. The figure masks a fundamental change to the sales mix. With smokers staying away, drink sales are down 3.4% and machine income has plunged 11.3%. Pub profits are also down 11%. Salvation lies in a strong surge in food sales which are up 7.7%.
For the rest of the trade the lessons are obvious. Expect to see an increase in lower-margin food sales (if your food offer is up to scratch) and a reduced number of beer drinkers. The more your food offer can be developed and the better the outside area you provide, the less pain your business will suffer next year. As our campaign asserts, it really is time to Plan for the Ban.
