Too early to say...for now
I polled a number of pubcos last week on the impact of the English smoking ban in their pubs.
Those prepared to talk about trading in the 10 days since July 1 gave a fairly upbeat, if understandably vague, response, with most saying it was too early to comment on the specific effects of the ban.
We're likely to hear this line quite a lot until the first trading updates start to trickle in around October, when - coincidentally - one suspects the weather will turn really nasty. Then we'll see what's what.
Meanwhile pubco marketing types are doubtless beavering away in smoke-free rooms trying to predict future trends based on what data is available.
Licensees have been more forthcoming. For some the impact so far has been "insignificant", while others report business down by up to a fifth since July 1. How much of this is down to the weather or the smoking ban is debatable, but the ban gets it in the neck every time.
Meanwhile those nice people at research group Market & Business Development (MBD) have forecast that turnover in UK pubs will rise "by a moderate two per cent" in 2007, versus previous annual growth rates "oscillating between one and three per cent". So, er, not much change there then.
Furthermore, in an understatement of Leviathanesque proportions MBD asserts that cheap deals on alcohol through supermarkets "are placing increased pressure on the pub industry".
More saliently however, MBD reckons in five years time there will be 2.7 per cent fewer pubs in the UK - 56,642 - versus the 58,193 said to be trading currently. Not exactly the post-ban on-trade Armageddon predicted, if you believe the figures.
This will doubtless prompt the line about "lies, damn lies and statistics" and an avalanche of diatribe from the pro-smoking brigade, but maybe, just maybe, once this has all settle down life won't be so bad after all…
