Pete Robinson: Scottish smoking ban has NOT "cured death

Anyone who follows my inane rantings may recall I was highly critical of Glasgow University Professor Jill Pell's 'research' which claimed to prove Scottish heart attacks among non-smokers had fallen by a spectacular 20% in the year since their ban was introduced (Scottish smoking ban "has cured death" - see the link, right).

That piece attracted a fair bit of stick from the antis, even gaining a mention in the ASH bulletin. Oh, the audacity. Seems it's tantamount to blasphemy to challenge the findings of medical researchers, even if there's very little actual 'research' taking place when you strip away the spin.

However last week Scotland's NHS official yearly figures were quietly slipped out and they make interesting reading. Especially when compared to previous pre-ban statistics from the same source.

Far from the 20% drop pushed by Prof Pell the real fall in heart attacks for the year from March 2006 was just 8%. But the percentage fall in the three years before the ban was between 5% and 6% per annum. So the fall since the ban was less than 3% above the trend.

Antis will tell you that even a 3% fall means the ban has worked.

But larger yearly drops are fairly common, with a great many health initiatives targeting Scotland's appalling heart disease epidemic. For example the year 1999-2000 saw a fall of 11%.

The real question to be answered here is WHY the enormous gap between Prof Pell's headline-grabbing figure and that based in reality?

No use asking Jill Pell. She's gone to ground along with her team. Amazingly the study itself has still never been published.

It was never peer reviewed and they steadfastly refuse to release the data on which it was based. They've left the phone off the hook and all attempts to talk to the lead researcher have gone unanswered.

So if you want an explanation in Prof Pell's absence you'll have to rely on my opinion and guesswork.

In her undisclosed role as the leading light of the government funded organisation 'STOPIT' (STudy Of Public place Intervention on Tobacco exposure) Prof Pell was under great pressure to 'produce the goods', statistically vindicating the smoking ban ethos.

With a prestigious two-day anti-smoking summit coming up at the Edinburgh International Conference Centre that pressure must have been unbearable. We don't know what data Prof Pell used.

Whether it was a strategically gathered sample or a reworked version of a parallel study she was working on, one that clearly demonstrated a genetic link rather than smoking, that remains a secret STOPIT aren't prepared to share.

Whichever, instead of waiting for official data Prof Pell rushed to a conclusion that fails to stand up to even the mildest scrutiny and went public with it. Her work was at best shoddy, naive and poorly compiled. At worst it was deliberately deceitful, thoroughly bogus and consummately fraudulent.

I doubt she had anticipated the extraordinary media attention her press release would incite. It became fevered headline news in every newspaper in the land, even the lowly provincials.

Politicians, medical bigwigs and the usual line-up of anti-smoking 'charities' turned out to gleefully applaud Prof Pell's findings as if Moses had returned from Mount Sinai.

Even though it now stands discredited that 20% reduction remains etched into the public psyche. The media aren't interested in redressing the balance and the likes of ASH et al are hardly likely to publicise the truth are they?

So you will inevitably see that figure banded about for the foreseeable, as if it were gospel. The antis will regurgitate it at every opportunity along with their favourite bogus statistics.

Prof Pell will eventually emerge from her hiatus with the whole sorry story forgotten and her reputation intact. She'll perhaps be offered a job in the propaganda dept of the new 'Health Alliance'.

In a year's time some other university whitecoat with a vested interest will release similarly contrived figures 'proving' yet another massive fall in England & Wales heart attacks since our own ban. The media will have another field day and the usual suspects will propagate the lie.

Regardless of the damage it will cause to genuine heart research.

Regardless of the fact it may actually cost lives as a consequence.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.