Chris Maclean: Who dares wins

I am rarely shocked about issues in the licensed trade. But last week a truth dawned on me that caught me by surprise.

Things in the pub trade are not as bad as many seem to be making out.

There. I'll write it again.

Things in the pub trade are not as bad as many seem to be making out.

We are almost a year into the smoking ban and the sky hasn't fallen in.

But there are a lot of Chicken Lickens out there.

I was listening to a number of experts predicting patterns of trade. Statisticians, market researchers and entrepreneurs all recognised the impact of the smoking ban, the credit crunch, the anti-social behaviour lobby, and most acknowledged the negativity of these factors. But each one said, effectively, that the worst had passed.

Poppycock, I wanted to cry. Haven't you seen the wholesale destruction of the licensed trade? All those wonderful pubs boarded up? We are on the brink of disaster aided by a government that drives on duty increases, talks of the social consequences of excessive drinking while clawing all the revenue it can gather and then spends tens of thousands of pounds trying to kill the goose that lays all those golden eggs.

Then the truth started to dawn on me.

Two years ago I moved to this fine market town with 24 pubs. After two years and all the trauma the industry has faced we now have, erm, 24 pubs. In truth we now really have 25. One is boarded up following a misunderstanding but I am sure it will reopen again shortly.

Listening to those who have done their work the estimated losses will be minimal. A 10 per cent loss in this town would mean two or three pubs closed. Nationally that would equate to around 6,000 pubs. Tragic, yes. But not as catastrophic as suggested by many. So yes, there will be losses. Maybe heavy in some areas. But a huge majority will overcome them. And we saw far worse losses twenty or thirty years ago.

So if the real truth is that things are not as bad as they might appear, it seems obvious to me that there are some real opportunities to be made. Here is the trick. Many of our competitors are battening down the hatches, cutting staff, advertising, maintenance, gardening, promotions and entertainment. We can take advantage of this.

Times like this call for bold initiatives. Dramatic gestures. Pubs that distinguish themselves now, when others are trying to be as average as possible, stand to gain the most when the market starts to rise ~ and it will.

In a field of grey it is easy to stand out.

There is now renewed vigour here in the Railway Hotel. This is so exciting! There will be a planning meeting in the morning. We will invest, we will innovate and we will increase. I can see some very positive things. I can feel a new confidence in where we are going.

He who dares wins, Rodney!