Scottish pub numbers set to tumble
Pub numbers in Scotland could be slashed to 1980's levels after the country's new Licensing Act kicks in, according to a trade chief.
Scottish Beer & Pub Association chief executive Patrick Browne argues government licensing stats showing a modest drop in on-licences over the last two years are "pretty meaningless".
And, pointing to high licensing and other costs, he predicts a further drop in pub numbers ahead of the Act becoming fully effective next year.
He suggests Scotland, with 5,168 pub licences in 2007, will soon have less than 4,500 - roughly the same as in 1980.
He said figures showing a fall in all kinds of on-sale licences from 10,809 in 2005 to 10,789 in 2007 include many pub licences which are active but not trading.
"We know from other industry statistics from CGA Research that since March 2006 an estimated 450 pubs have stopped trading in Scotland, albeit other licensed premises will have opened to replace them."
Scottish Licensed Trade Association chief executive Paul Waterson also says the stats are deceptive.
He told thepublican.com: "We have lost a great number of pubs in the last couple of years - in the towns and cities and certainly in rural areas."
He blamed the smoking ban and cheap drink in supermarkets for a continuing fall in pub visits.
Glasgow licensee Carmine Capaldi of Linen 1906 bar, said: "Everybody knows pubs are shutting, or barely staying afloat. You only have to look at local pub property pages and the number for sale."
Meanwhile, off-trade licences are also slightly down, from 6,332 in 2006 to 6,232 in 2007. Trade experts believe the numbers hide the steady growth of supermarkets versus the decline of small independent off-traders.
