Who's fooling who?

I don't expect Punch Taverns' Giles Thorley, Enterprise Inns' Ted Tuppen or Admiral Taverns' Lynne D'Arcy to give a flying fig for the following observation, but hardly anyone I speak to outside the trio of the UK's largest leased pub companies expects all three to be operating in a year's time.

I'm not merely talking here about groups of disgruntled 'activist' licensees - some of whom have cannily upped their profile recently - though such individuals have been awaiting the demise of these companies for a while.

Rather I'm talking about sector veterans and individuals within the investment community who have sat back, taken stock of various circumstances in the market and concluded the prospect of all three still being in business in 12 months is an unrealistic one.

It's the scale of leverage in such businesses that concerns many of these observers. Neither income from rents and barrelage nor proceeds from pub sales can keep on plugging the debt gap, they argue.

For their part pubco bosses say their debt is 'manageable' and continue to stress the tenanted and leased model, if not in the rudest of health, is the still best way forward for many involved in the sector.

While the Fair Pints of this world would argue precisely the opposite, there are clearly thousands of lessees tied to the pubcos who either have little or no cause to complain - or if they do, they choose not to because they believe it's not worth the hassle.

Sadly the looming Budget will probably prove to be of little help for many pub businesses.

Meanwhile it is those with a chunk of cash stashed away somewhere, all ready to spend on snapping up one or more of 2009's inevitable casualties (read 'distress bargains') whom experts believe will clean up.

Every cloud has a silver lining for someone…