Pete Robinson: Unhappy 2nd birthday for the smoking ban

Here we are, two years down the line from the imposition of the pub smoking ban. So what's changed in those 'groundbreaking' 24 months?

In some ways not much at all. In the run up to the July 1st 2007 the Trade had two things in abundance. Customers and opinions.

Opinions did, of course, vary - and mine was just one. I've always been an optimist and a positive thinker, it's what I am.

But while I can glimpse light at the end of the tunnel once the ban is amended, as I see it the industry's glass has most definitely remained half empty.

Hence my views have been heavily panned by many for their alleged negativity. I've been accused of being a dinosaur who refuses to 'evolve'. My accurate forecasts of turnover erosion and pub closure numbers dismissed as seditious scaremongering. Two years ago they could get away with it but as time passes it's getting harder to deny that, modest as I am, I was right all along.

Two years ago the most popular industry opinion was that of the 'New Opportunity'. We must evolve to cope with the huge influx of healthier customers who were about to swamp our new, cleaner pubs throughout the land. All the statistics said so.

"But what about the smokers?"

What about 'em? Let's face it, we're not really going to need them anymore once the rush starts. Anyway most of 'em are gonna give up after the ban so we're doing them a favour. The rest will 'visit pubs more often', the opinion polls all say that. And it ain't as if they can't stand a bit of rain now and again, is it?

The advice was to steam-clean, fumigate and redecorate throughout. At all costs you must completely eradicate any evidence that society's scum had ever been there. The 'new breed' of customer wouldn't like that.

And now, two years on, we've already lost around 5% of our total pub stock with a further 53+ pubs going to the wall each week.

Which industry opinion now holds sway?

Amazingly it's pretty much the same one!

The industry naively took a leap of faith into the abyss, like lemmings jumping from a cliff. It's now in freefall but remains in total denial of the catastrophe occurring all around us - because we haven't hit the bottom yet.

There are several reasons for this. The men-in-suits at the top aren't used to being wrong. They're still convinced they can turn things around given enough time. The race isn't over so it's too soon to say we've backed the wrong horse.

If these people could pull their heads out of the sand long enough to look around they'd see the 'horse' is a donkey with one eye, three legs and it's missing a pair of testes.

Of course it's so much easier to blame the recession, supermarkets, increased overheads, social change, or even the customers themselves. Regardless of the admirable way our pubs have successfully weathered these challenges many times in recent decades.

Anything rather than admit to the fact that the smoke-free pub experiment has been an abject failure from the very start. Just as it was in Ireland, just as it was in Scotland.

At what point will they accept they've made a grave error and retrace their steps?

"C'mon Pete! There are loads of successful pubs around. Some have flourished since the ban."

Certainly there have been some successes, partly due to the north/south divide that's protected London from the full impact of the ban - for now at least.

Other publicans with busy pubs in enviable locations have benefitted from the closure of local competition. Terrified an amendment to the ban might drive their customers into neighbouring establishments these 'I'm alright Jack' landlords are amongst the most ardent and vocal pro-banners.

The rest of those at the 'sharp end' of the trade are still split.

Some publicans simply like the smoking ban. They've been won over by the health arguments and believe it's only a matter of time before the 'new breed' turn up. Nothing wrong with that. It's every publican's right to take his business non-smoking if he wishes.

But NOT to insist it must be imposed universally.

Then there's the complacent landlord who supports the ban for no other reason than it's the law. okay, trade has been hit but he's sure he can survive until things recover. You can't turn the clock back so we should all stop moaning and just 'get on with it'.

Others cling to the ban out of fear. The consequences if the 'new breed' never arrive are unthinkable. Brains mightier than theirs must have given this a lot of consideration. So they cling to the vain hope the men-in-suits were right, that ASH had been truthful, that CAMRA's laughable surveys were correct. Not much longer now, then it will all have been worth it.

However the majority of publicans, I believe over two-thirds and rising, are against the blanket ban in it's present form. No doubt some of these supported it two years ago but the evidence of their own eyes and cash registers has caused them to think again.

The rest of the 'no-banners' were against it from the beginning.

They had sufficient common sense to see it would be unpopular and harmful to their businesses.

Remember to add into this equation the views of some 5000 ex-publicans who's pubs have been sacrificed to the smoking ban.

Bankrupt, homeless, their dreams lying in tatters. Without exception they always condemn the ban as the principle reason for their sad demise.

When the hospitality trade is compelled by the State to become inhospitable to HALF of it's formerly loyal customers then it shouldn't take a genius to understand that, sooner or later, they are gonna point ten toes towards the door.

"But what about the positive aspects of the ban? 40,000 lives saved over the next 10 years! You can't argue with that, can you?"

Erm... well actually yes you can. The first thing to note is that this imaginary estimate, for that's all this figure is, comes from the provisional wing of Cancer Research UK. Yes, the ones who fund ASH using taxpayer's cash lavished so scandalously it makes MP's expenses look like fiddling the tea kitty.

Now it would take too long here to explain how these statistics are contrived but try Googling 'Trojan Numbers' to get an idea.

Suffice to say those who have done the maths calculate the '40,000 lives' myth is based on the verbal say-so of just 21 individuals.

In fact smoking rates have soared in Ireland and Scotland since their respective bans, especially amongst the young. Pretty ironic innit?

"What about the 80-odd percent of the public who support the smoking ban? Even 47% of smokers support it!"

No they don't. It's just another bogus statistic. Some time before the ban an item on local TV announced an online smoking survey was about to close at midnight. I went directly to the Midlands-area site and filled out the questionnaire.

The questions were cleverly worded in such a way it was almost impossible NOT to support the ban. For example, "Do you believe smokers should be allowed to endanger the health of those around them?"

What's more all of the regional surveys were conducted by a network of proactive anti-smoking groups. They were deliberately underpublicised to avoid any risk of being truly representative.

In short they were conducted with all the transparency and fairness of an Iranian election.

The overwhelming majority of non-smokers are fair and tolerant individuals to whom SHS is simply not an issue. They all have smoking friends and realise smokers are not the evil, selfish baby killers the health fascists would have you believe.

Those people who never used pubs before the ban don't give a rats ass what changes you've made. Pubs still hold no attraction for them whatsoever and never will. So if you're banking on the 'New Breed' you'll be waiting a helluva long time.

Meantime one more unforseen consequence of the ban is that your existing non-smoking pub goers are missing the smokers