There's still time for an upswing in 2009

You won't often hear me say this, but God bless America, for it has taken their First Lady to put the British pub on the front pages of the international, national and trade press for all the right reasons for a change.

Michelle Obama's visit to the Audley in Mayfair with her two daughters highlighted that despite the British pub getting a bit of hammering on its own shores, internationally it is still seen as one of the pillars of what makes the United Kingdom the place it is.

Now, Mayfair isn't lacking in upmarket restaurants, so for a pub to be chosen by the First Lady as her venue of choice for dinner should be seen as a real plus point for the industry, and also highlights how far the standard of pub food has come.

However, it is a sad state of affairs when you think that Michelle Obama has arguably done more in one visit for the UK's pub industry than the Government has done over the last decade or so, what with tax increases, the amount of red tape and its ignorance towards belowcost selling by the supermarkets.

We now stand on the threshold of some movement from the Government, with the industry waiting to see whether the issue of the tie and the relationship pubcos have with their tenants will be referred to the Competition Commission, after recommendations from the Bec Report.

It does look increasingly likely that some evolution of the tied lease system will occur.

Hopefully the sector itself will be able to come up with an outcome that benefits the industry as a whole, before the Government gets the chance to impose its own ideas. Before that happens, the sector can expect a few months of speculation.

Despite the uncertainty thrown up by the Bec Report, we have found that the appetite for

owning and running a pub is still very healthy. We saw a 20% increase in pub deals during the month after the report, compared to the month prior to the findings.

Despite the report's criticism of the current lease model, more than half of the pub deals agreed by Christie+Co during the month (13 May 2009 to 13 June 2009) were for tied leases.

Viewings of pubs were also up during that period. This shows there is still a demand for tied leases as a low cost point of entry to the sector.

Those already running a pub are still facing challenges, but the majority of them are

knuckling down and getting on with it. Where operators have adjusted their model to suit the changing demands of customers, trade has found a level at which it can be sustained through the recession.

A cautious approach is still needed and any form of recovery will initially be very fragile, but with recent trading figures from many of the major pubcos being more robust and with the promise of a hot summer, we may be able to enjoy a more positive second half of the year.

Neil Morgan is director and head of public houses at Christie+Co