Food will offset wet falls in pubs
A 16% fall in wet volumes in the on-trade over the next five years will be offset by eating out — that's according to a new study from CGA Strategy.
Some 16% of wet-led pubs will close or change their offering to survive, while some will also cut operating hours and open part-time. Throughout the rest of the on trade, the number of outlets will fall by 6.1%.
But the news is not all negative. While CGA forecasts a 26% decline in wet volumes in wet-led pubs, it predicts a 16.3% increase in numbers of food pubs and restaurants.
And the eating-out sector as a whole — which in-
cludes food-led and branded food pubs, as well as restaurants — will see 14% growth in its wet volumes.
Despite falling volumes, an increase in food-led pubs — with premium products prompting higher turnovers — means sales by value will stay roughly static (up 0.2%).
The research shows the number of wet-led pubs had fallen by 6.9% between June 2008 and June 2009 to 33,239. The number of food-led pubs grew by 2.1% to 11,729 in the same period.
"It's far too simplistic to say that volumes are moving from the on-trade to the off-trade", said CGA chief executive Jon Collins.
Other findings from the research, revealed at the Wine & Spirit Trade Association's annual conference, showed that wine continues to outperform the total alcohol market. Volumes are increasing 2% year on year — mainly driven by a 4% increase in rosé volumes.
The RTD category has declined 15.4%, mainly due to the rise of packaged cider and chilled wine.
Meanwhile, spirit volumes are declining at a lower rate than beer (-5.2% against -7%). And value sales of spirits are increasing due to the popularity of more premium vodkas, gins and golden rums.
Collins pointed out that despite the health lobby's focus on outlets using large-serve sizes, 175ml wine glasses are the most popular size at more than 60% of outlets, while 85% of venues serve spirits in 25ml.
The study also found the average price for a 75cl bottle of red wine was £8.69 at entry level, £14.24 (mid-market) to £29.35 (premium).
White ranged from £8.63, to £14.30 to £28.73 and rosé varied from £8.41 to £13.55 to £23.83. A total of 1,500 wine menus were surveyed.
