Stocking up for Christmas: Christmas in a cold climate
Forecasting Christmas should be easy - after all, it's the same date every year. However, calendar aside, the forthcoming festive season is a very difficult one to cal in terms of food trade.
For every customer looking to put the ups and downs of 2009 firmly behind them and go for the full Christmas blow-out, there are others who will be looking to get a good deal.
Supplier 3663 has undertaken some serious number-crunching on what happened last year. Pub left ordering until very late, and while 3663's sales to the pub trade were up by 0.8 per cent in the four weeks to December 20 2008, the balance was weighted in favour of managed groups, suggesting the independents lost out.
To help tenanted and leased outlets compete more effectively, 3663 has included a number of packaged meal deals in its 2009 catalogue. There are three course Christmas menu options which can be sold at £14.99 a head or £24.99 a head and still deliver a good GP.
Cash & Carry group Makro is also expecting independent pubs to have to compete for trade. It has put together a range of Christmas products under its 'Love The Pub' brand, with price deals on food, drink, coffee and other products.
Managing director Hans Floto says: "We know that for many of our customers, Christmas is the busiest and most profitable time of year, and we want to help them increase their margins during the festive season.
"Cash and carries like us are in a perfect position to help businesses who need more support than ever due to the current economic climate."
Tony Goodger foodservice trade manager BPEX, which promotes British pork, believes pubs will need to have a range of menu options to meet different customer budgets. "Pork works well with many different seasonal flavours - and of course Christmas wouldn't be Christmas without a home-cooked ham
"Menus need to appeal but they also need to be priced attractively, so it's important to seek out ingredients which allow you to offer quality dishes fit for the occasion, but at a fraction of the cost. Our advice is to keep the price of pork dishes in line with poultry."
At EBLEX, which promotes English beef and lamb, foodservice project manager Hugh Judd, says: "This Christmas there will be increasing pressure on pubs to deliver better value for money. Roasts remain key to the Christmas dining occasion - in fact, roast beef with all the trimmings will often tempt even the most traditionalist diner away from the turkey. But there are a number of beef and lamb roasting joints that are equally tempting without blowing budgets.
"Careful planning is the key, as is talking to your catering butcher or supplier about the economical cuts they have available."
