What would a Tory/Lib Dem Government do for pubs?
David Cameron is in talks with Nick Clegg about forming a coalition government after the Conservatives failed to get an overall majority in the election. John Harrington examines what such an administration would mean for the pub trade.
At the time of writing, a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition appears the most likely outcome of this most unpredictable of election of recent times.
Talks are underway now to hammer out details of any pact. It could all fail, of course, but assuming a deal is reached, what would such a Government mean for the industry?
Firstly, as Cameron says, there are many areas of common ground in their manifestos that point to future action for the next administration.
Banning below-cost alcohol sales and exempting venues with a capacity under 200 from needing a licence for hosting live music are supported by both parties.
So is ending Labour's planned rise in National Insurance contributions - this was flagged up as a priority in Cameron's speech this afternoon - and granting automatic rate relief.
These issues may well form part of the next government's programme of action, as relatively easy steps to unite the uneasy coalition.
But lets not pretend that pubs will be a priority. Starting to deal with the country's massive deficit this year is essential, the Tory leader said, so any favours on alcohol duty would be a long shot.
The Conservatives have already promised to raise taxes on drinks "linked to anti-social behaviour".
But crucially, their manifesto doesn't repeat earlier promises to cut duty on low-strength products like beer. In other words, they've accepted the country can't afford it.
As for the Lib Dems, they want to review the "ill-thought-through" alcohol tax system, including the beer duty escalator, so it targets bingeing but not responsible drinkers and pubs.
My hunch is that the inevitable compromise in the coalition government — and the economic priorities it faces — will leave this sop to the industry on the cutting room floor. Even the Conservative's high-profile promise not to introduce the planned 13% hike in cider duty should be called in doubt.
On licensing, the Tories have grand plans to "overhaul" the regime, giving greater powers to police and councils to remove licences, doubling maximum fines for underage sales and charging more for late-night licences.
The Lib Dems, in contrast, have accepted that the system is basically best left alone. The party's priority is cheap supermarket alcohol, so I expect the new government will focus its energy on this rather than on wholesale changes to licensing, although there will probably be the odd tweak here and there.
However, an outburst of negative press stories around alcohol-related disorder — perhaps during this summer's World Cup - could force the new Government to take a tougher line.
Meanwhile, I wouldn't expect any action on the beer tie within the next year at least.
The Lib Dem's wide-ranging plans for the tie - including a statutory code to ensure tied tenants aren't worse off than free-of-tie, and asking the Competition Commission to probe having limits on pub ownership — will probably be put on ice.
The Conservatives (like Labour) say the industry should have a chance to implement self-regulation by June 2011 before enforcing a statutory code. This offers some much needed breathing space for a new government that's forced to focus on what it sees as more pressing issues.
