Pork prices to rise by at least 10% in 2013

The rise will occur after a law coming into effect in January 2013 changes the way sows are kept during gestation, banning sow stalls.

The UK, Sweden and Luxembourg are all in full compliance, but as other countries follow suit BPEX expects herd size to reduce by 5% to 10%, leaving pig meat production down by 5% on 2011. The shortage of imported pork will hit the UK, which is only 40% self-sufficient in pig meat production, causing prices to increase.

It will also be exacerbated by the rising cost of feed, impacted by the droughts across America, and the rising cost of straw from £20 a tonne 18 months ago to £70 now, brought about by farmers switching to oil seed rape for greater yield.

“Pubs need to think about building in a price increase this side of Christmas to avoid a shock in January,” said BPEX foodservice trade manager Tony Goodger. “The cost of straw will continue to rise. It is a non-recoverable cost for farmers.”

Currently, UK pig farmers are losing 25p on each kilo of pork and a sustained loss over 12 months would result in a total £200m loss. The rises should be short-lived as farmers turn to other methods as a counter balance.

“I think more farmers will exit the market, but those remaining will improve efficiency and work on increasing the number of piglets produced a year,” said Goodger.