Data and insight brand Lumina Intelligence has released a snapshot of its latest Eating and Drinking Out Panel for December 2024.
The Morning Advertiser looked at these recent trends and what they may mean for operators going forward.
Indulgence favoured
According to the Lumina Intelligence Eating and Drinking Out Panel, classic pub food maintained its popularity with chips, fries and wedges ranking as the highest dish share during occasions, with burgers experiencing the most significant growth of 1ppts year on year.
As the festive season increased across pub and bar occasions, dishes such as wings, nuggets, tenders and ice cream/sorbet also showed growth in consumer preference as people continued to prioritise indulgence during the festive period.
Stronger consumer sentiment leads to KPI growth
Market penetration increased by 2.4 percentage points (ppts) to 59.9%, throughout December, which was primarily led by improvements to consumer confidence.
According to the Lumina, average frequency also increased by 7.1% as consumers enjoyed added festive socialising a little more out of their homes.
Festive socialising drives channel share
As consumers chose to indulge in wet-led celebrations and quick snacking, pubs and bars and quick service restaurant increased in share by 1.3ppts and 0.9ppts.
As consumers also favoured pubs and bars as the locations for festive socialising events, drinks also grew by 0.4ppts. Consumers also favoured QSR more regularly on journeys home from on site premises.
Ice cream/sorbet overtakes salad in popularity
Of the top 10 dishes, ice cream or sorbet overtook salad for the seventh place in popularity throughout December, showing a strong consumer desire for indulgence during the festive period.
Burgers also experienced strong growth throughout the period (up 1ppts) which was driven by an increase in pub and bar occasions and an inclusion of burgers on festive menu offerings.
Improvement macro metrics year on year
According to Lumina Intelligence, business growth throughout the sector from the four weeks ending December 24 2023, to December 24 2024, saw varying economic factors impact growth.
The table cites the factors listed below as having potential influence on consumer behaviour or spending patterns.
In the period ending 2024, consumer price index inflation, (CPI) was 2.5% compared to the 3.9% the previous year, a lower recorded rate at the end of last year. Interests rates also increased significantly between the 4 weeks of December 2023, and 2024.
The interest rate was noted at 5.25% in 2023 and by 2024 it had been “reduced to 4.75%”.
While the interest rate was lower last year, the table indicates a reduction, therefore the rate may have been higher at some stage throughout the year before, before finally decreasing to 4.75%.
Key events and political updates impacting the Christmas periods over the two years included alcohol duty increasing in 2023, with the impact of the Christmas season influencing growth as well as the RMT Industrial strike action.
The winter fuel budget cut also impacting 2024.
Throughout last year, the lead up to Christmas was a factor as well as British farmers protesting against inheritance tax.
Weather was also a significant aspect of impact, during 2023 there was disruption from snow and storms Elin & Fergus, bringing disruptive but milder weather, similarly in 2024 where storm Darragh with conditions eventually easing.
Consumer participation increases
Throughout December last year, key performance indicators showed a strong market performance. Average spend increased as well as more consumer participation in social events and out of home occasions.
Wet-led occasions were high in popularity, paired with both drink occasions and the pub and bar channel growing share.
As Christmas outings increased, average frequency also grew at 7.1ppts.
Evening socialising increases
Lumina data reported throughout the festive period, consumers were typically choosing to socialise during evening hours over the daytime or morning, this saw an increase in pub and bar and quick service restaurant engagement, up 0.99ppts and 1.3ppts respectively.
Christmas related outings steadily increased pub and bar engagement, and popularity with coffee and sandwich shops drastically declined.
