The headline figure fell by 0.3%, according to the latest Foodservice Price Index (FPI) from CGA by NIQ & Prestige Purchasing, bringing respite to operators ahead of the festive trading period after six months of rises.
Vegetables recorded the most significant downward movement, with a 1.7% drop year-on-year, attributed to improved seasonal supply compared to October 2024.
However, the outlook remains mixed, with potato yields varying significantly between Scotland and England due to prolonged heat, and brassica sizes remaining small and making winter availability dependent on improved rainfall.
Crucial period
There was also an easing of inflation in the milk, cheese & eggs category, where prices fell 1.5% month-on-month, reflecting a softening in global dairy markets, with declines in whole milk powder and cheese quotations.
CGA by NIQ senior insight consultant Reuben Pullan said: “As hospitality begins the crucial run-in to Christmas, news of an easing in inflation is a welcome development.
“Nevertheless, months of increases have taken a heavy toll on businesses, and there are plenty of warning signs to suggest this will be temporary respite rather than a turning of the tide.”
Meanwhile, the meat and poultry segment moved in the opposite direction, with prices rising 0.7%. While global meat indices have shown some easing, UK poultry markets face severe volatility due to renewed Avian Flu outbreaks.
Fragile market
Unprecedented 30-day export bans on major turkey suppliers have also created acute shortages and record-high spot prices as festive demand accelerates.
Purchasing CEO Shaun Allen said: “The slight decline in the FPI to 150.6 offers a welcome, albeit temporary, respite for operators after six months of consistent month-on-month inflation. However, the market remains incredibly fragile.
“With Avian Flu disrupting poultry supply during the crucial festive period and structural costs like energy and labour remaining high, this month’s easing should be viewed with caution.
“Operators must remain agile in their sourcing strategies to navigate the volatility expected through winter.”
