Commodity costs are falling, but remain well above pre-US-Iran conflict levels. Despite very angry rhetoric on both sides and no evident progress toward a solution, market sentiment and prices continue to soften.
In relation to other global supply pressures, the US is allowing Russia to deliver LNG cargoes to China.
However, China is the country most affected by the recently introduced US block on Iran’s ports. Current efforts to block Iranian trade, alongside financial sanctions, are intended to weaken their economy and force a settlement.
In a European context, UK gas storage is at 32% and European storage at 30%. EU countries are set to co-operate in purchasing LNG, to avoid competing against each other to refill their gas reserves for next winter. Pushing prices up, in doing so.
Electricity rate offers widen
Gas has shown greater volatility in recent weeks. Gas commodity and contract rates are falling, while electricity costs appear relatively stable.
The gap between the highest and lowest electricity unit rate offers has widened to 11ppkW. It’s important to add that the cheapest unit rate has a S/C of £9.71 per day, while the highest has a 30ppd S/C. It’s clear that business energy costs vary significantly, with smaller, poorer credit operators paying most.
| Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing/Ch | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 12/03/2026 | 9.6p | 26.5p | £2.00 |
| 26/03/2026 | 10.4p | 25.9p | £2.11 | |
| 16/04/2026 | 8.7p | 26.6p | £2.87 | |
| Gas | 12/03/2026 | 4.2p | 7p | £1.57 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4.7p | 7.2p | £2.12 | |
| 16/04/2026 | 3.5p | 6.1p | £2.65 |
While commodity and contract costs have fallen recently. The situation remains tense, and key actors are unpredictable. Future price movements are unknown, and operators should not assume that delaying agreeing contracts will result in lower costs.
In addition to energy cost volatility. Energy suppliers continue to present the same challenges for pubs - delaying changes of tenancy, poor customer service, and increasing levels of disconnection.
Get advice
For customers taking on a new business, deemed rates are rising, with unit rates roughly double the best contract rates. As a result, lengthy periods on deemed rates undermine the long-term success of new pub businesses. For pubs approaching the end of contract, it’s crucial to get customer-focused advice on your options and let you decide.
Larger businesses operating flexible purchase agreements are advised to continue monitoring the market. Prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before July at the earliest. Purchase strategies should be reviewed, given global supply challenges.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Contact Nationwide Energy
Tel: 02476 328995
Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk
