The market remains far from flat, but trading conditions have become more complex, with consumers going out less frequently and demanding more from each visit.
London-based operator Tim Skinner, who runs the Devonshire Arms near Marylebone, told The Morning Advertiser (The MA) trade across the capital was “steady but positive”.
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He added like-for-like wet-led sales were up between 3% and 5%, largely driven by volume rather than price.
“We’re seeing a continued shift towards premiumisation. That doesn’t necessarily mean more expensive, but it does mean higher expectations around quality, serve and environment.
“There’s been continued strength in stout and premium lager, where quality of serve and consistency are directly impacting rate of sale,” Skinner said.
However, he noted the market was “more considered than last year”. “Guest frequency is marginally down, but spend per head has held and, in some cases, improved,” he continued.
“This suggests consumers are being more selective about when and where they go out but are still willing to spend when the experience justifies it.”
Midweek softness
Skinner, who also runs the King’s Head in Guildford, said performance outside London was flatter, especially midweek, with customers heading home earlier.
That midweek softness was echoed by chef-operator of the Unruly Pig in Suffolk, Dave Wall. He described midweek trade as “challenging”.
“We’re heavily reliant on birthdays and celebrations and, on too many occasions for comfort, we’re having some really slow days,” Wall told The MA.
“Positively, weekends are still holding up strongly. However, so far this year we are 11% down on revenue for the same period in 2024; that is bleak against a backdrop where our running costs have increased so greatly.”
Conversely, licensee of the Royal Dyche in Burnley, Justine Lorriman, has seen year-on-year growth in midweek trade. However, while sales at the wet-led pub are “steady”, Lorriman said trade remains flat overall.
“The good weather has definitely helped and we’re up on our midweek trade compared to last year”, she explained.
“We also recently completed renovations on our beer garden, so it’s been great to start making use of that space. Our outdoor stage is all ready for a summer full of live music, events and the World Cup.”
As the sun shines, occasion-led trade has proved a critical driver of footfall, particularly during quieter periods.
“People are clearly going out less, but once they are with us they want to make the most of their experience.”
Chef-owner of the Unruly Pig Dave Wall
“The biggest driver has been occasion-led trade,” Skinner said, highlighting the importance of live sport, quizzes and live music. “When they are executed well, they drive both frequency and dwell time.”
Operators have also adapted their offer to maximise key trading windows. Wall told The MA the Unruly Pig has extended its Sunday roast service throughout the day and evening following increased demand.
While “logistically challenging”, the move reflects the pressure on businesses to capitalise on peak trading occasions.
At the same time, operators have focused on increasing spend per head without raising prices through what Wall described as “soft upselling” - using product placement and staff engagement to encourage guests to trade up.
Operators also reported a shift towards more premium products as consumers look to make on-trade visits more of an experience. Wall pointed to increasing demand for high-end cocktails and sharing dishes.
“While people are clearly going out less, once they are with us they want to make the most of their experience,” he added.
Value sensitivity
However, rising value sensitivity and “health kicks” are weighing on trade, with fewer people drinking alcohol or eating out, demonstrating the need to expand soft and sugar-free drinks ranges, according to Lorriman.
The rise of no- and low-alcohol products – particularly zero beer – has also continued to gather pace, while RTDs have gained in popularity at the Royal Dyche.
Lorriman said: “BuzzBallz have been a huge surprise, we only brought in a few flavours a couple of weeks ago but they’re already flying out.”
Though against a backdrop of sustained cost pressure, operators agreed profitability remains the biggest challenge facing the sector.
Labour costs, energy bills and supplier inflation have all continued to rise, while customers are simultaneously becoming more discerning, squeezing margins from both sides.
Despite this, challenging conditions are sharpening the market. Wall said “where there is adversity there is opportunity”, noting pubs are being pushed to “up their game” and find new ways to attract guests.
Though Skinner warned the divide between those succeeding and those struggling has “never been wider”.
While the sector continues to show signs of resilience, operators agree there is little room for complacency.
Strong execution, a clear offer and compelling reasons to visit are increasingly crucial, particularly when it comes to rebuilding midweek trade.
