OPINION: What every operator should know about the climate’s impact on food and drink

In early August our local supermarket (like most others) completely ran out of cucumbers – at the exact same moment that many of our local growers were complaining about an enormous glut.

Drought in Morocco and Southern Spain and a more moderate July in Wales explained the difference – a perfect example of how changes to our climate are impacting both availability and cost of our foods.

Our climate

The UK’s climate is moving rapidly from a benign and predictable pattern where temperatures were at a stable average with relatively small fluctuations, towards a rising average accompanying warmer winters, hotter summers, more intense rainfall events, longer dry spells, and more extreme heat. The same is true for mainland Europe, except with greater severity.

For food this means that we have entered a period of adaption and transition, where the assumption that a particular growing/rearing geography will be unchanged in the future can no longer be relied upon. For those growing or buying product, this new factor of ‘climate risk’ must be considered – which includes probability, severity and duration of events that damage or eliminate production.

Claims that humanity will starve as a result are for the large part overstated. The greatest strength of the way we produce food is its ability to adapt at pace to changing circumstances. But we would do well to recognise that our food system has historically operated in an environment that served its greatest need extremely well – that of relative stability of growing conditions. And of course, the climate is still changing.

We have also relied upon growing methods that whilst improving yields have contributed materially to the climate crisis. Maintaining both availability of supply and prices close to their historical average will be a massive challenge in the years ahead. Unpredictable food quality, unavailability of product and higher cost price are likely to become increasingly commonplace.

Short-term

So far this year we have had five heatwaves in the UK. The most recent one also coincided with a more severe one in mainland Europe and North Africa. Heatwaves impact food production negatively because of the higher temperature, lower rainfall and resulting physical damage such as wildfires.

Heavily reliant as we are on nations to our south during winter for salads, summer vegetables and fruit, these months usually enable us to switch production to our own shores. Low yields and drought damaged crops have forced us to backfill the sourcing of many products from the EU.

This has mostly worked, but higher prices have fed through during August. Broccoli, cucumbers, carrots, salad leaf, peas and notably potatoes have all experienced physical availability issues in recent weeks. In other areas, tomatoes, some fruits, olive oils, and dairy supply has generally been good but at higher price.

Delayed impacts

UK production of cereals for animal feed, and the poor quality of this summer’s grazing pasture is disrupting the feed cycle and raising feed costs. These will likely feed through into beef, lamb, pork, poultry, dairy and egg prices later in the year.

Both UK and EU potato harvests will be poor this year, so pricing is likely to be higher as we move into 2027.

The developing El Niño is expected to influence weather through late 2026 and into early 2027, overlapping with critical stages of the Southern Hemisphere grain production cycle.

Reuters reports that there is now over a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the 2026–27 northern-hemisphere winter, with Australia among the regions exposed to drought. With a weaker Northern Hemisphere harvest and a significant downside risk to the 2027 Southern Hemisphere grain harvest, there is a strong chance of significant price rises next year in grain markets.

Operator mitigation

There are a number of things that operators can consider when seeking to mitigate the inevitable cost challenges that will emerge in the years ahead:

Capability – this is definitely a good time to reflect on your own procurement and supply chain management capability. Historically buyers in hospitality could abdicate sourcing to wholesalers, but to do so now would raise risk significantly in this new environment. Buyers need to be able to assess their supplier’s own sourcing capability to respond with robust and resilient strategies that minimise cost, quality and availability risks.

Review exposure – particularly around product currently imported from the EU. Secure supply on vulnerable products such as potatoes. Suppliers who buy on the open market can be particularly vulnerable to crisis driven shortages.

Ingredient agility – have a plan ready in advance to allow for critical ingredient substitution in the event of a price spike or availability issue – this can be at a dish or an ingredient level.

Menu design – design menus that take into account the resilience of availability and price of key ingredients.

Government

Food has not been a high priority for any UK government in the past decade. In March this year it formed the Farming and Food Partnership Board, which is led by DEFRA and includes UK Hospitality to improve collaboration across the food system. Amongst their priorities are improved food security and strengthening domestic supply chains.

It would certainly be good to see this body influence a renewed focus on water management (particularly on-farm), which summer 2026 has exposed as woefully underinvested.

The £65m offered by HMG so far on this was a reallocation of an existing farming pot, and is a tiny investment when compared to our total need as a nation. Topping up supply from the EU when we have unexpected shortages may not be a contingency that will work for us commercially forever.

• This story was originally published on the Morning Advertiser’s sister site, MCA, here.