However, they have eased as oil tankers get through the Strait of Hormuz again.
Gas is recovering more slowly, Europe’s stores are low for the time of year and the rates pubs are being offered are still catching up with September’s highs. If your renewal is close, the timing matters.
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Market update
A fortnight ago we said wholesale costs were more likely to rise while neither route out of the Gulf was working. That now looks too gloomy. Oil tankers are getting through the Strait of Hormuz again, Saudi Arabia has restarted its bypass pipeline and Gulf oil exports in September were the highest since the war began. UK wholesale gas fell about 10% over the fortnight and electricity about 8%.
Europe went into October with its gas stores 71.5% full, the lowest for the time of year in 15 years.
Gas tankers are getting through too but S&P Global says October could recover to only about a quarter of pre-war shipments if the late-September pace holds.
Winter is when a pub’s kitchen and heating burn most of its gas and a cold snap would push prices back up quickly.
Washington could still reverse the recent falls: President Trump is weighing fresh strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November, the Wall Street Journal reports. For now, the Met Office expects near or slightly above average temperatures through October, which keeps heating demand down.
Business energy costs
Wholesale gas for November is 6.3p per kWh, against 2.5p before the war on 26 February, and electricity is 15.3p against 6.9p.
The rates on pub contracts we signed rose anyway, the lag we warned about last time. Electricity rose from 27.7p to 28.5p and gas from 7.6p to 8.0p, partly as September’s wholesale rise reached suppliers’ price lists. Each average also depends on which contracts we signed, so one fortnight is not a trend.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 03/09/2026 | 14.2p | 27.9p | £1.49 |
| 17/09/2026 | 15.5p | 27.7p | £1.26 | |
| 01/10/2026 | 15.3p | 28.5p | £1.18 | |
| Gas | 03/09/2026 | 6.2p | 7.4p | £0.68 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6.9p | 7.6p | £0.80 | |
| 01/10/2026 | 6.3p | 8.0p | £0.87 |
If your pub’s renewal is inside three months, get prices now and compare the full annual cost, including the standing charge, which a pub group pays at every site.
If you are six to 12 months out, we think you can wait, but settle with us now the price you would lock in at, and act sooner if the US resumes strikes on Iran.
Gas prices for next summer fell only about 2% because Europe must buy heavily then to refill its stores. Even if the strait fully reopens, budget for 2027 prices well above pre-war levels.
Advice for licensees
Electricity meters have started moving to half-hourly settlement, an 18-month industry switch that charges suppliers for when their customers use power as well as how much.
A pub’s trade picks up in the early evening peak, when power costs most, so we expect more quotes priced by time of day. Send us any bill that looks wrong while your meters move over.
If you are taking on a new tenancy, sort the supply before you pull your first pint.
Until the transfer is done, a new licensee is on deemed rates, usually well above any contract rate. Keep the dated lease, the day-one meter reading and the supplier emails together, and bring a stalled transfer to us early.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
