Official of National Statistics (ONS) labour market figures – released this week – show the number of payrolled employees in the accommodation and food services industry saw its biggest year-on-year decline in August, falling 4.1% from 2,174,759 in August 2024 to 2,085,155 in August 2025.
Conversely, vacancies in the sector rose for the first time in a year, up from 74,000 in July 2025 to 78,000 in August 2025.
Recruitment could be derailed
RSM UK warned that while pubs and bars may be seeking new staff, the looming Budget – which is set to take place at the end of October to early November – will be a factor in what sites do in terms of employing people.
RSM UK partner and head of leisure and hospitality Saxon Moseley said: “While payrolled employees in the hospitality industry saw their biggest year-on-year decline in August, the month-on-month change does indicate the numbers are flattening out. This suggests operators may be close to cutting as far as they can in response to April’s rise in staff costs.
“Added to this, vacancies in the sector increased for the first time since August 2024, which indicates businesses have turned a corner and are looking to recruit again. However, with speculation and uncertainty building in the lead up to the Budget, there’s every possibility this could be derailed, particularly if businesses are hit with additional tax rises.
Gov support needed
“Operators need to see Government support in the Budget rather than further tax burden placed on them. Any tax measures that hit consumers’ disposable income will also have a negative knock-on effect on the sector, so the government must tread extremely carefully.”
The statement from RSM UK follows findings from the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker earlier this month that managed pub, restaurant and bar groups continued a flat summer of trading with like-for-like sales in July dropping 0.1% on the previous year.
Meanwhile, last month, data from Buchler Phillips Hospitality Index, which compiles monthly company insolvency figures from the Government’s Insolvency Service, showed 1,706 accommodation and food service firms including pubs, hotels and restaurants closed in the six months to June 2025.
This was a slight fall in insolvencies in the sector but figures remain historically high.
