The forecast shows UK wide business rates yield increasing from £33.6bn in 2025 to 2026 to £37.1bn in 2026 to 2027, a rise of more than 10%.
Higher overall liabilities
The growth is driven by inflation, a reset of the tax base at the new valuation date, and the withdrawal of temporary Exchequer funded support for retail hospitality and leisure. The figures suggest that the sector will face higher overall liabilities across the next three years despite lower multipliers for qualifying sites.
From April 2026 England will move to a five-tiered multiplier system. Pubs with a rateable value below £51,000 will fall under the new small business RHL multiplier of 38.2p, while those between £51,000 and just under £500,000 will fall under the RHL booth multiplier of 43p.
These replace the temporary 40% relief renewed annually since 2020.
Ryan’s analysis warns that the permanent reduction is equivalent to around 11.6% support for smaller RHL sites, well below the current level of discount.
Properties above £500k will face a high value multiplier of 50.8p. Around 21,000 properties are expected to be affected across England with pubs in high value city locations among those exposed to the supplement.
Transitional caps will limit year one increases but Ryan has warned that the compound effect across the three year cycle remains substantial. For pubs above £100k rateable value the cap structure could result in bills doubling by 2029 once projected inflation is included.
Ryan practice leader for Europe and Asia Pacific property tax Alex Probyn said the headline fall in multipliers does not translate into lower overall bills.
‘A different story’
“We are seeing the headline multipliers come down for pubs, but the overall yield tells a different story,” he said. “Inflation, the reset of the tax base and the end of temporary reliefs mean many operators will still face higher bills from April. Transitional caps will soften the first year but they only delay the impact. The sector needs to prepare for material increases across the next three years.”
The Government has now published the Draft 2026 Local Rating Lists for England and Wales. These show the new rateable values that will apply from April 2026 and provide the basis on which individual pub liabilities will be calculated once transitional relief and the new multipliers are applied.
Many operators will therefore need to assess each site carefully across the coming weeks. Rising rental evidence in key trading areas combined with the end of temporary reliefs means that larger pubs and those in premium locations may still see higher bills from April 2026 despite the introduction of permanent hospitality multipliers.
