‘Far less support’
Managing director Rachel Dobson said operators had received “far less support than hoped for” in yesterday’s Budget and now face rising wage costs alongside continued pressure on food and drink prices.
“While support on business rates is welcome, the industry had campaigned for broader tax concessions,” she said. “Christmas is only just starting for customers, but for operators the menu planning for this period is essentially in the past. Very high costs for core festive items such as turkey, beef, coffee and chocolate have already dented margins.
“The challenge now is to take whatever profit can be realised from December and put a clear plan in place for January to March. It is likely to feel like a long haul through to Easter.”
Cost concerns by commodity
The forecast highlights several areas of cost concern for pubs and restaurants over the coming months:
- Beef: Lower production and tight supplies are expected to keep prices high well into the first half of 2026
- Fish: Cod and haddock availability remains under significant pressure, with prices rising sharply. Operators offering flexible white-fish menus will be better placed, though high costs are expected across the board.
- Vegetables: Brassicas recovered well from the summer heat, but root vegetables such as carrots, parsnips and swedes have been negatively affected and are coming through smaller than usual
- Coffee and cocoa: Global climate-driven supply issues in Brazil, Vietnam and West Africa have pushed commodity prices sharply upward, and Lynx expects elevated costs to continue into 2026
Dobson said operators should begin promoting January menus now, with consumer confidence unlikely to improve meaningfully until spring.
“The good news is that many winter dishes, from stews and pies to sausage and mash, can be built around better-value cuts and seasonal produce,” she added. “Working closely with suppliers will be essential for managing costs and keeping menus both appealing and viable through the early part of next year.”
