The analysis, based on pricing across 5,000 sites operated by major hospitality groups, shows festive menus are up 4% on last year.
The rise is slower than the 10% increase seen in 2024, but continues an upward trend driven by higher operating costs and softer consumer demand. In 2023, a snap poll by The Morning Advertiser (The MA) found that 31% of respondents said they would charge more than £30 for dinner at their pub over the festive season.
Remaining competitive
The results found that while two thirds of operators have increased their festive menu prices, with an average uplift of 9%, 20% held prices and 15% reduced them as operators attempt to remain competitive in a subdued trading environment.
Pub and restaurant menu prices specifically rose by an average of 7% compared to 2024, outpacing the 5% rise in food and beverage inflation recorded by the Office for National Statistics.
Meaningful Vision said cost inflation is coinciding with a drop in visits. Food service transactions fell -0.4% between January and September, equating to 27 million fewer visits. For managed pub groups and casual dining chains this represents around 300 fewer visits per site each month.
Shifting strategy
The data suggests a shift in menu strategy as operators look to protect margins. Around one fifth of chains have removed two course festive options altogether and now only offer three course menus, typically at a £5 premium. Some sites have also cut free welcome drinks from Christmas packages.
Meaningful Vision CEO and founder Maria Vanifatova said: “While the cost of eating at a restaurant or pub has increased this Christmas, the year-on-year difference is less stark than in 2024. Pressures on operators in the form of rising costs, lower footfall and tougher competition have forced more than one third to maintain or cut prices.
“That said, the majority of restaurants and pubs have raised prices by more than inflation. We are also seeing more businesses find other ways to increase bill values, such as removing two course options and some of the added elements that would typically sit within Christmas packages.”
She added that headline revenue growth for the sector “mostly reflects inflation”, with real like for like performance signalling another challenging festive period for many pub and restaurant groups.
