This is raising fresh concerns that the system is once again penalising success rather than reflecting real world viability.
New analysis by global tax firm Ryan shows that pubs across England and Wales face an average 30% increase in rateable values under the 2026 ratings list, at the same time as temporary reliefs are withdrawn.
The firm warns that the valuation methodology risks making many pubs economically unviable, despite turnover having broadly recovered since Covid.
Across England and Wales, combined pub rateable values are set to rise from £1.214bn under the 2023 list to £1.578bn in 2026, an increase of £364.75m. The average pub rateable value will rise by around £9,300 to £40,245.
The increases reflect a fundamental feature of the ratings system. Pubs are largely valued on Fair Maintainable Trade, meaning turnover is the primary driver of assessments.
The 2026 revaluation is based on trading levels at April 2024, a point at which many operators had rebuilt sales but were already grappling with sharply higher costs.
A structural flaw
Ryan says this creates a structural flaw. While turnover has recovered, profitability has not. Rising wages, energy costs, alcohol duty, employer national insurance contributions and supply chain inflation are not captured by the valuation model, leaving many pubs facing higher tax bills despite tighter margins than before the pandemic.
The impact is amplified by policy changes coming into force from April 2026, including the end of the 40% retail, hospitality and leisure relief in England and higher multipliers, particularly in Wales where pubs do not benefit from a preferential retail rate.
Case studies compiled by Ryan show substantial increases across both large pub restaurant formats and smaller community sites. Some large pub restaurant operations see rateable values almost double, pushing them into the highest multiplier bands.
Meanwhile, several smaller urban pubs in London and regional cities face percentage increases of more than 500%, driven by sharp rebounds in post pandemic trade.
Alex Probyn, practice leader for Europe and Asia Pacific property tax at Ryan, said pubs were being punished for rebuilding.
“Turnover has recovered, but profitability hasn’t, and the rating system ignores that. Rising wages, energy costs, higher duties, supply chain inflation and the loss of reliefs mean many pubs are no longer economically viable. The operators who worked the hardest to rebuild their trade are the ones being hit with the biggest tax rises,” he said.
Wider confusion
The findings echo wider confusion across the sector about how government support is communicated versus how it is experienced by operators.
Recent debate around alcohol duty highlighted a similar disconnect, with ministers pointing to headline support while operators face rising cash costs once inflation linked increases take effect.
In both cases, policy positions may be technically correct, but they fail to reflect the commercial reality facing pubs on the ground.
Ryan argues that without reform, the pressure will intensify as transitional reliefs unwind over the 2026 to 2029 cycle, exposing the full scale of higher liabilities.
Probyn said pubs should instead be assessed using a full receipts and expenditure approach to better reflect real world trading conditions.
“Without that reform, many pubs face an unsustainable future. Once a pub is gone, the jobs, footfall and community value it brings are rarely replaced,” he said.
