According to Lumina Intelligence’s latest Eating and Drinking Out Panel, covering the 13 weeks to 28 December 2025, overall eating out penetration fell 1ppt year on year to 58.9%, despite the festive period.
While average frequency rose 1.9% and spend per visit increased 2.6% to £18.51, Lumina said this was inflation-led rather than demand-driven.
Within this softer demand environment, pubs and bars saw their share of occasions fall 0.8ppts year on year in Q4. By contrast, QSR gained 1.5ppts and retail grew 0.8ppts, as consumers prioritised affordable and convenient options in the run up to Christmas.
This comes despite some operators reporting bumper festive performances. In early January, pubs reported “record-breaking” Christmas trade, with operators such as Cheshire Cat Pubs & Inns posting double-digit like-for-like growth and strong early-season trading driven by sporting events and pre-Christmas celebrations.
Shift from drink-only visits
Day part data points to a continued move away from drink-led occasions. Drink-only visits declined 0.6ppts year on year in Q4, while lunch rose 0.9ppts and dinner increased 0.4ppts. Lumina said this signals a clear shift towards food-anchored occasions rather than pure social drinking.
For pubs, this reflects a broader market trend where meal-led visits are proving more resilient than standalone drinking occasions. The report highlights that participation for breakfast, snacking and drink-only visits fell overall, as consumers reallocated spend towards sit down meals and value driven formats.
However, higher festive footfall did not necessarily translate into stronger profitability. Separate coverage of real-time trading data showed that although dwell time and spend per head hit annual highs over Christmas, rising wage, energy and input costs continued to dilute margins for operators.
City centres gain
Outlet location data shows city centre share of occasions rose 1.4ppts year on year, while high streets declined 1.6ppts. According to Lumina, the uplift in city centres is partly down to festive meet ups and colleague gatherings, alongside changing hybrid working patterns.
That trend was mirrored in operator feedback. Publicans told The MA that earlier work Christmas parties, colleague gatherings and matchday traffic helped boost city and destination pubs during the festive period, even as trading patterns became more unpredictable.
This suggests pubs in city centre locations may have been better positioned to capture seasonal trade, while high street operators faced additional pressure from weather, budget constraints and softer footfall.
The strongest growth in eating out occasions came from 35- to 44-year-olds, while older consumers cut back across channels. Lumina said that 25- to 34-year-olds, the most active eating out segment, leaned into QSR, pubs and catering, while rising cost concerns continued to suppress overall demand among older age groups.
Group composition also shifted, with solo occasions increasing and visits with a partner declining, pointing to a more functional and convenience led market.
Across the total market, quality-led and value-led mindsets continued to dominate consumer behaviour, while sustainably conscious and socially conscious motivations declined year on year.
Lumina said financial caution in the final quarter of 2025 meant consumers prioritised speed and value, particularly at breakfast and dinner, while lunch saw greater focus on value, quality and atmosphere.
Overall, the data paints a picture of a more cautious consumer entering 2026, with pubs facing declining share in a market where value, food-led occasions and convenience continue to shape behaviour.
