According to the latest Lumina Intelligence report, the UK eating out market is forecast to reach £102.8bn in 2026, representing growth of 1.8%, revised down from 2.4% in February.
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Inflation-led growth
Lumina said growth was now largely inflation led, with consumer confidence and participation under pressure.
The report warned quick service (QSR), coffee shops, sandwich and bakery, travel and contract catering channels were set to outperform, while pubs and service-led restaurants would continue to lose ground.
The pubs market is forecast to reach £24.6bn in 2026, up 1.5%, with outlet numbers expected to fall 1.2% to 41,027.
This includes £12.7bn across managed, branded and franchised pubs, £3.3bn across tenanted and leased pubs, and £8.4bn across independent and free of tie sites.
Lumina said pubs and service led restaurants were being hit by rising labour costs, business rates, inflation and a growing base of cost conscious consumers. It added that these channels had seen significant declines in outlet numbers, with existing challenges exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainty and continued cost pressure.
However, drink led occasions are providing some resilience. Pubs and bars saw penetration reach 11.2%, up 1.3% compared with two years ago, although down 0.1% year on year.
Solo visits and drink range
Pubs and bars also gained share of total eating out occasions, rising to 13.1%, while after work drink occasions increased by 1.5%. Lumina said this was being driven by solo visits, with solo after work drink occasions in pubs and bars up 4.2% year on year.
The report also pointed to opportunities in drinks ranging. Drink only occasions in pubs and bars rose 1.6%, while cider and spirits gained share across alcohol occasions.
Beer remained the most popular alcoholic drink, accounting for 55% of alcohol occasions, although its share slipped 0.2%. Cider rose 0.6% and spirits increased 0.7%.
Lumina said cider had become the second most popular alcoholic drink in pubs and bars, driven by draught, premium brands and no and low options. Rum recorded the strongest growth within spirits, while gin saw the sharpest decline.
The report said pub and bar operators were increasingly prioritising sharper formats, lower risk growth and experience led occasions. It highlighted selective refurbishments, franchising and leased models as operators look to manage labour, rates and energy pressures.
Outperformers
JDW (JD Wetherspoon) and Loungers’ Lounge café bar brand were identified as outperformers among pub and bar brands, while experiential and competitive socialising operators such as Flight Club and Vagabond Wines were among the fastest growing concepts.
Looking ahead, Lumina forecast pubs would reach £25.5bn by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate of 1.2% from 2026. However, pubs are still expected to lose 0.7% of eating out market value share between 2023 and 2029.
The report said service led operators would need to focus on clearer reasons to visit, stronger differentiation, seasonal menus, experiences, premium drinks ranges, better use of space and stronger service standards to compete for more selective consumers.
