Market update
On 28 May, US forces struck an Iranian launch site at Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and gas flows. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliated against a US base in Kuwait.
UK gas prices reacted sharply by rising by around 5% to 6% within a day. The current view is that gas is unlikely to fall cleanly while the strike risk is live because suppliers are pricing the renewed escalation in.
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European gas storage sits at around 38%, with refill harder and more expensive than usual. Norway-based energy company Equinor has warned stocks could turn critical if Hormuz stays shut for months and Europe is unlikely to reach its 80% pre-winter target so treat any autumn softening as possible, not promised.
UK May has flipped from cold to record heat. The Met Office provisionally confirmed two consecutive May temperature records this week, with 35.1°C at Kew Gardens on 26 May. Smaller risk than a blocked shipping route but hotter trading days mean more refrigeration and cooling load across pubs and managed houses.
Business energy costs
Ofgem confirmed on 27 May the domestic cap will rise 13% from July with gas up 24% and electricity up 5%. Business bills will follow in the same direction.
Our table below now puts electricity commodity cost at 10.2p per kWh, which is about 3.3p above the late-February pre-conflict baseline, and gas at 4.0p, about 1.5p above. The split is structural: electricity carries network and policy costs that do not ease when wholesale gas does.
If your pub’s renewal lands in the next three months, get fresh prices this fortnight and check the standing charge as closely as the unit rate.
If you are six to 12 months out, waiting can still make sense, but watch storage refill and avoid deemed-rate exposure during a change of tenancy.
Supplier challenges
Change of tenancy delays remain the most common supplier issue we see, with suppliers asking for solicitors’ letters and extra paperwork to slow the process down.
If you are taking on a pub, have every document ready and double-checked before you start: lease, ID, opening reads and responsibility dates.
At renewal, check your bill for deemed-rate exposure, since that is where the avoidable cost usually sits. If a change of tenancy or renewal is coming up, get in touch and we will work through it with you.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
