Lumina’s Operator Data Index Q2 2026 found the top 10 pub and bar operators are expected to grow sales by 2.7% in 2026, ahead of the wider pub and bar market.
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The wider UK pubs and bars market is forecast to reach £24.7bn in 2026, up 2%, despite outlet numbers falling 0.9% to 41,171.
Lumina said performance remained shaped by continued consolidation, with weaker sites exiting the market and sales becoming increasingly concentrated among stronger operators.
Scale and value
JDW is forecast to grow sales by 4.3% this year, from £2.15bn in 2025 to £2.24bn in 2026. The pubco is also expected to increase its estate by 2% to 810 sites, making it the largest pub and bar operator in Lumina’s ranking by both sales and sites.
Loungers is forecast to deliver the strongest growth among the top 10, with sales expected to rise 15.4% to £451m. Its estate is also forecast to grow 7.2%, from 279 sites in 2025 to 299 in 2026.
Lumina said outperformance was being led by scale and value focused operators, with JDW benefiting from its scale and value led positioning, while Loungers continued to benefit from expansion and strong consumer appeal.
Selective expansion
However, outlet numbers across the top 10 pub and bar operators are forecast to decline slightly by 0.1%, as openings are offset by further rationalisation across established managed estates.
Hungry Horse, Harvester and Slug & Lettuce are expected to see the sharpest contractions among the top 10 by outlet numbers.
Lumina said growth was increasingly concentrated among premium and experiential concepts.
Little Door & Co is forecast to lead pub and bar outlet growth at 40%, followed by Vagabond at 16.7%, Loungers at 7.2%, Flight Club at 6.7% and Heartwood Inns at 2.8%.
By sales growth, Little Door & Co is also forecast to lead at 19.3%, followed by Heartwood Inns at 17.7%, BOX at 16.5%, Loungers at 15.4% and Vagabond at 14.4%.
The report said strong growth across these brands highlighted continued consumer demand for premium, experiential and experience led hospitality formats.
The report said strong growth across these brands highlighted continued consumer demand for premium, experiential and experience led hospitality formats.
The findings follow a period of expansion among several of the named operators, with Vagabond recently opening new sites in Soho and Canary Wharf, and announcing its first location outside of London, in Brighton. Heartwood Inns has continued to grow its accommodation offering as it now targets 1,000 rooms.
