The Out of Home GLP-1 Navigator found 6.1% of UK adults are currently taking GLP-1 medication, with more than one in four either currently taking, having previously taken or considering taking it.
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Lumina said more than one in ten UK adults could be using GLP-1 medication by 2031, driven by NHS rollout, greater competition and lower prices.
The report said operators should prepare for GLP-1 consumers “in a similar way to catering to dietary requirements”, rather than rewriting entire menus.
Smaller portions
The research found GLP-1 users eat out less often and eat less when they do, but can trade up on quality, experience and added health benefits.
Around half of European GLP-1 users reported fewer eating out occasions, restaurant meals and takeaway spend, while 57% said they had increased purchases of smaller portions or small plates instead of main meals.
The growing use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could change what customers want from the on-trade, with Bidfood estimating 2.8m UK adults were taking the medications, highlighting growing demand for smaller portions.
Almost three quarters, 73%, of consumers said they would be more likely to try a new cuisine if it was served as a small plate, while 43% wanted to try small-plate or tapas-style dining in the next one to two years, according to the wholesaler’s latest food and drink trends report.
Lumina said menu innovation should focus on smaller, higher-quality plates, with high protein, fresh and balanced options more important than low-calorie positioning.
The report said: “Volume falls, value does not have to.”
Drinks risk
Lumina warned drinks could be a key risk for pubs, with GLP-1 users more likely to drop drinks from food occasions as a way to manage satiety and calorie intake.
The report found current users had a stronger preference for non-alcoholic drinks in pubs and under-traded on alcoholic drinks by six percentage points.
Beer was also more exposed than other alcoholic categories, falling 10 percentage points to 42% of alcohol occasions for current GLP-1 users, while wine and cocktails gained share.
Lumina said pubs needed a “strong and appealing” non-alcoholic range, wider than traditional carbonated soft drinks, to retain spend from GLP-1 consumers.
Harriet Dawson, category support specialist at Unity Wines & Spirits, said the impact was not limited to people taking GLP-1 drugs, with friends and family also changing what they ate and drank when socialising.
“It’s when you’re going out with people taking them as well,” she said, adding customers could be more likely to choose an alcohol-free drink or have a smaller food portion when socialising with someone taking GLP-1 medication.
Dawson continued: “Consumers still want to go out, but they’re becoming much more selective about where, where, what, and how much they drink. It’s creating some significant challenges, but there’s also some exciting opportunities out there as well.”
KAM research cited by Bidfood found 46% of UK consumers knew someone using GLP-1 drugs.
Of those, 71% had changed their drinking or socialising habits, including 30% who drank less alcohol when with them, 20% who socialised in different ways and 16% who were more likely to choose no or low-alcohol drinks.
Pub opportunity
Despite risks to drinks and dinner occasions, Lumina said GLP-1 consumers allocated a comparatively larger share of their out-of-home occasions to pubs, bars and restaurants than the overall eating and drinking out consumer.
The report said this reflected a move away from convenience and sustenance occasions towards more social and experiential visits.
It added dinner was one of the most at-risk dayparts, but GLP-1 users still ate out for specific dishes, cuisines and venues, as well as to relax and socialise.
For pubs, Lumina said this meant leading with experience, quality, protein and fresh ingredients, while offering smaller formats and stronger low and no-alcohol options.
The report also warned operators to be careful with marketing language, as there is no authorised GLP-1 health claim on the GB Register and terms such as “GLP-1 friendly” have no legal definition.
Lumina said operators should “describe the dish, not the drug”, using compliant nutrition claims such as high protein or source of fibre where appropriate.
- Access the full report from Lumina Intelligence, here.