Lumina Intelligence’s Operator Data Index also said turnover is expected to rise by 1.5% despite a 1.2% drop in outlets.
Furthermore, the report outlined the top operators in the sector, which were predicted to grow turnover by 4.6% - ahead of the wider market.
When ranked by turnover, JD Wetherspoon (JDW) has the largest (forecast to be £2309m) and is expected to deliver 24.8% more when looking at the period from 2019 to the end of 2026 and 7% in the year to December.
Outlet growth
However, The Loungers, part of Loungers, is expected to see 170% from 2019 to the end of this year and 12.9% in the 12 months to the end of 2026.
Whitbread’s Beefeater is predicted to remain the weakest performer as estate rationalisation continues.
The report also forecast outlet growth among the fastest-expanding pubs and bars this year will be led by experiential and competitive socialising concepts.
Little Door & Co is set to remain the fastest growing in terms of sites with a 40% increase to seven sites (up from five) while King Pins (part of Professionals At Play), BOX (Arc Inspirations), Vagabond and Flight Club (Red Engine) were also in the top five.
Franchise formats
Elsewhere, the report highlighted how franchise-led community formats are likely to be driving lower-risk pub expansion, pointing to Greene King’s plans to open 30 new pubs this year, largely focused on its Hive and Nest franchise formats.
Moreover, rooms-led diversification is set to be a core strategy for margin resilience, outlining how Heartwood Collection has continued to frame accommodation as a central pillar of its expansion strategy and Butcombe Groups’s estate investment earlier this year where rooms were part of a defensive, diversified earnings mix.
Moreover, the report looked at the UK pubs and bars market landscape, which showed the number of outlets in the managed, branded and franchised segment were down 1.6% (10,424) while the tenanted and leased sector was down 1.4% (12,169).
Both independent and free of tie pubs alongside social clubs saw outlet numbers drop by 0.9% (16,261 and 2,191 respectively).
