That deal is now signed, and gas has eased again. But this is still the start of an easing, not a return to pre-war prices, and a record-breaking June heatwave has pulled electricity the other way.
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For pubs, the two fuels are now moving apart.
The United States and Iran signed an initial deal at Versailles on 17 June, and the conflict premium has kept un-winding.
Brent oil fell to around $73 a barrel, its lowest since before the war, and wholesale gas camedown with it.
Market update
Flows through the Strait of Hormuz are close to pre-war levels again. But President Trump has threatened a Hormuz transit toll once the 60-day deal window closes, and Iran has claimed the same right, so the fall is real but reversible.
The floor underneath is still higher than before the war.
European gas storage was about 47% full in late June, below the five-year average, and with Qatar’s export plants years from repair every summer cargo iscontested.
Weather added the bigger twist: a heatwave broke the UK June temperature record two daysrunning, reaching a provisional 36.4°C, and the grid operator issued, then withdrew, a summer margin notice as cooling demand spiked.
For pubs the strain is cooling, not heating, with cellars, beer lines and fridges working harder on every hot day.
The deal is still feeding through to wholesale costs. At our 25 June sample, gas sat around 0.6p per kWh above the pre-conflict level, down from 0.9p a fortnight ago, the clearest sign yet that the premium is un-winding.
But the unit rates suppliers quote have not caught up, so the saving is in the pipeline rather than on the bill.
Higher demand
Electricity is a separate story. Even as wholesale power eases, network charges keep climbing, with transmission alone up around two-thirds from April, and last week’s heatwave showed how fast demand can tighten the grid. An electricity bill will not follow gas down.
For licensees, it comes down to timing. If your contract ends within three months, get fresh quotes now: offers have improved, and locking in the easing beats waiting for a bigger fall that won’t come.
Six to twelve months out, you can watch, but plan on rates near today’s, not last year’s, and watch the standing charge as closely as the unit rate, a fixed daily cost per site whether the tills are busy or quiet.
And if you are taking on a new tenancy, deemed rates run well above a competitive contract and a slow change of tenancy can leave you on them for weeks, so sort the supply before you pull your first pint.
- See Nationwide’s previous energy update here
Contact Nationwide Energy today
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Tel: 02476 328995
Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk
Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions (25/06/2026).
