Instead the ceasefire has broken down, Europe’s gas storage is at a five-year seasonal low, and wholesale gas and power have climbed again.
Supplier quotes have not caught up with this week’s move yet, and that gap is the opportunity for licensees this fortnight.
Market update
Early August brought hope that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, after Iran and Oman agreed a shipping route.
Talks stalled mid-August and two more ships were attacked; just six vessels passed through on Tuesday against a ten-day average of eleven.
The ceasefire has broken down and Washington widened its economic pressure campaign this week, so wholesale gas and power climbed again.
Even with a quick deal, the UAE’s national oil company does not expect full flows before mid-2027, so the war premium in energy prices is not going anywhere fast.
European Union gas storage has just passed 60% full, lower for mid-August than any of the last five years, and analysts doubt it reaches even the reduced 80% winter target.
Qatari gas is still missing and refilling is expensive. That thin winter buffer is why we would not bank on autumn bringing cheaper offers.
The Met Office expects changeable late-August weather, but short hot spells remain possible in the south, with fridges and cellar cooling working harder just as electricity costs more than a month ago.
Graph showing gas and Brent crude price trend produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions (19/08/2026).
Business energy costs
Gas remains the more exposed side and reacts first to every Hormuz headline. Gas commodity cost is about 3.0p per kWh above its late-February pre-conflict level, electricity about 5.8p, both wider than a fortnight ago.
Electricity gets some shelter because less gas is being burned for power, but Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges jumped in April, with another rise of about a quarter forecast for next April, so expect the standing charge to matter as much as the unit rate.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 22/07/2026 | 12.6p | 27.2p | £1.28 |
| 06/08/2026 | 11.3p | 28.4p | £1.21 | |
| 20/08/2026 | 12.7p | 27.9p | £1.23 | |
| Gas | 22/07/2026 | 5.1p | 6.7p | £0.80 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4.6p | 7.1p | £0.79 | |
| 20/08/2026 | 5.5p | 7.2p | £0.80 |
For licensees, timing is the lever. Quoted rates have not caught up with this week’s wholesale move, so if your contract ends within three months, get fresh quotes before suppliers reprice.
Eight to twelve months out, decide in advance what price or event will make you fix; a cold winter on thin storage could push prices higher, and a very strong El Niño, now declared, raises the odds of a cold end to winter.
And if you are taking on a new tenancy, sort the supply changeover before you pull your first pint: the supplier needs the incoming tenant’s details, documentary evidence and a day-one meter reading, or the first bill arrives on a rate nobody agreed.
Not every protection depends on the market. Monthly meter readings and a dated photo of each meter give every site evidence that settles most billing disputes before they start.
For pub groups and managed houses the standing charge is paid daily per site, so with network charges rising a low unit rate is not always a cheap contract; check the standing charge as closely as the unit rate.
Contact us today
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Tel: 02476 328995
Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk
- This update is our commentary on the energy market, prepared from public sources and our own data. It is general information, not advice tailored to your business. Nationwide Energy accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on its contents.
