The US-Iran deal is dead, both Gulf shipping routes are under attack and wholesale gas is back near its March highs. Here is what that means for pub bills and what licensees can do about it.
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Market update
Iran declared the peace deal void on 15 July and the Strait of Hormuz closed; Houthi fighters have since hit two Saudi tankers near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea workaround. That leaves both exits for Gulf oil and gas under threat at once, and it is why this rise has held rather than faded.
Wholesale gas is at its highest since the conflict began in March, and power has moved with it. European gas storage was 54% full on 20 July, 10 points behind this time last year, and refill has slowed because nobody wants to fill tanks at war prices. A cold winter on that buffer would make supply itself, not just price, the question, which is why winter contracts already cost as much as today’s gas.
At home, Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 21 July. The headline VAT cut applies to household electricity, not most pub contracts, so don’t budget for it. The real win for licensees is a 20% business rates cut for pubs, clubs and music venues from April 2027, worth around £1,100 for the average pub.
Business energy costs
The wholesale cost of gas has risen by more than half in four weeks and now sits at more than double its late-February pre-conflict level, about 2.6p per kWh higher. Electricity is up about 5.7p on the same baseline. Supplier pricing is catching up but not caught up. This week’s quotes sit only a few percent above early July’s, a fraction of the wholesale jump.
For licensees, it comes down to timing again. If your contract ends within three months, get fresh quotes now, before the rest of the wholesale jump reaches offers; a long fix locks in the war premium, a shorter one keeps options open. Six to twelve months out, don’t fix at a spike. And if you are taking on a new tenancy, deemed rates at today’s wholesale levels are far more punishing than a month ago, so sort the supply changeover before you pull your first pint.
Not every saving depends on the market. Larger sites pay a daily charge on the supply capacity (kVA) their meter is agreed at, whether they use it or not, and many are set well above what the site draws. Getting it reviewed and reduced is money off the bill whatever the war does next. Pub groups can also align contract end dates across sites, so no single site is forced to renew into a spike.
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
