They have risen since, as Iran steps up attacks on shipping and says it wants oil prices high until the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November.
The rates on pub contracts we signed rose again, and network charges are set to climb from April. If your renewal is close, fixing now looks the safer call.
Market Update
A fortnight ago we warned that Washington could reverse the recent fall in prices. Iran has done it instead.
Iranian officials told Reuters they have changed tactics to hit ships in and beyond the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to keep oil prices high until the US midterm elections, and Yemen’s Houthis have struck Riyadh airport and Saudi Aramco’s headquarters.
President Trump has ruled out new strikes before the vote, which leaves Iran a free hand until then, so expect sharp swings.
Gas is where that bites hardest. Europe’s stores reached about 74% on Monday 12 October, nine points below this time last year, and attacks in Qatari waters threaten the partial recovery in Gulf gas shipments.
Winter is when a pub’s kitchen and heating burn most of its gas, so any cold spell would hit prices fast.
The Met Office expects high pressure from this weekend, bringing dry days and colder nights. Calm weather usually means less wind power, so more gas is burned for electricity just as pubs turn the heating on.
Business Energy Costs
Wholesale gas for November is 7.2p per kWh, up about 13% in a fortnight and against 2.5p before the war on 26 February. Electricity is 16.9p, up about 10%, against 6.9p, and both are above mid-September levels.
The rates on pub contracts we signed rose again: electricity from 28.5p to 29.1p and gas from 8.0p to 8.2p. Standing charges now cover every site we sign, large and small, and earlier rows are updated to match.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 17/09/2026 | 15.5p | 27.7p |
| 01/10/2026 | 15.3p | 28.5p | |
| 14/10/2026 | 16.9p | 29.1p | |
| Gas | 17/09/2026 | 6.9p | 7.6p |
If your pub’s renewal is inside three months, fix now; we doubt a dip comes before the vote. A fortnight ago we said six to twelve months out could wait. That now carries more risk, because the attacks have lifted next summer’s gas by about 15%, when Europe must refill its stores with less Russian gas, so agree with us now the price you would fix at.
Whatever wholesale does, budget for higher network costs from April: the grid operator, NESO, has proposed raising the charge for balancing the grid by about half, and a pub group pays standing charges at every site.
For licensees
A bill-checking firm told Ofgem and the Government this month that suppliers still base more than a quarter of business bills on estimated readings, and it wants the back-billing cap extended to every business. Send us any bill that looks like a guess before you pay it.
If you are taking on a new tenancy, sort the supply before you pull your first pint. Until the transfer is done a new licensee is on deemed rates, usually well above any contract rate, and Ofgem has yet to rule on how suppliers set them. Keep the dated lease, the day-one meter reading and the supplier emails together, and bring a stalled transfer to us early.
Contact Us Today
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Tel: 02476 328995
Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk
Graph produced by Cornwall Insight in conjunction with Drax Energy Solutions, 14/10/2026.
This update is our commentary on the energy market, prepared from public sources and our own data. It is general information, not advice tailored to your business, and Nationwide Energy accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on its contents.
