Andrew Meadowcroft: a united and responsible industry
There is much to consider as we enter 2008 and, as we face the challenges ahead, I strongly believe this is a year when the industry will need to stand united.
Weighing up both sides of the argument on the new 'war on alcohol', I agree wholeheartedly that we must accept and support fair regulation as a means of controlling and directing individuals and companies to promote the interests and wellbeing of the majority. That, after all, was the justification for the smoking ban.
However, the idea that more government intervention in the licensed trade would help in controlling the drinking of alcohol is an interesting one. It might seem slightly ironic to readers of thepublican.com that this all came at the end of an 'annus horribilis' and just as a further report was published stating that Britons are drinking less beer than at any time in the last 40 years.
Indeed, the sale of beer in pubs is now nearly half the volume sold in 1979, and in 2007 alcohol consumption fell in the UK for the first time since 1998.
While there has been a move away from beer towards wine and spirits, and most pubs have been able to benefit from these markets, the level of duties paid are already among the highest in Europe and beer sales have taken the brunt.
The industry has a pivotal part to play in encouraging responsible drinking, and working in partnership with local authorities and the police to help control excessive drinking in our pubs is a very clear example of how this can be achieved. But this is a far wider social and cultural issue, and penalising the industry is not the answer.
Operators I've been talking to tell me more tax on alcohol will have little effect on binge and underage drinkers and instead feel a tougher stance is required on the off-trade.
To demonstrate the point, of all beer sold in the UK in 1971, 90 per cent was sold in pubs, restaurants and hotels, compared to only 57 per cent today.
Furthermore, operators work very hard in self-policing their establishments to ensure they are safe places to both socialise and work.
This year will perhaps be the toughest for a long time; it's important that there is a clear and balanced message to counter what could be a powerful lobby for higher alcohol taxes. We must take public health very seriously, but the solution lies beyond simply increasing taxes and slamming the licensed trade.
The British Beer & Pub Association has suggested a "very tough final quarter". Customers tell me that while Christmas was reasonable, December started late and finished early. We will discover more as formal results announcements are made over the coming weeks.
The UK economy is still predicted to grow this year, albeit at a slower rate, and we're not facing the poor fundamental economic conditions we saw in the early 1990s.
We can still expect to see modest growth in the mid-long term and indeed we could see an increase in M&A activity with more consolidation in the industry as 2008 progresses.
Let's raise a glass to 2008, whatever it has in store!
Andrew Meadowcroft is head of licensed trade, Barclays Commercial Bank
