The latest foodservice price index from NIQ and Prestige Purchasing recorded the monthly increase following relatively stable prices over the summer.
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The rise was driven by higher costs across cooking oils, bakery products and sugar, reflecting adverse weather in key growing regions, supply pressures and disruption in the Black Sea.
Fresh produce prices also came under pressure as businesses became increasingly reliant on imports following the summer harvest, with reduced yields affecting crops including potatoes and onions.
Seafood prices remained elevated due to fishing quota reductions, although poultry and pork prices eased slightly as supplies improved.
Pressure on margins
Prestige Purchasing chief executive Shaun Allen warned inflationary pressures were building ahead of the crucial festive trading period.
He said: “The 0.9% month-on-month increase in September demonstrates that inflationary momentum is steadily building as we head into the winter.
“We are seeing a potent combination of macroeconomic pressures hitting the supply chain simultaneously.”
‘Volatile quarter’
Allen added that rising fuel, transport and packaging costs, alongside tighter supplies of cereals, oils and sugar, could create a volatile final quarter for operators.
NIQ senior insight consultant Reuben Pullan said the increase would put further pressure on hospitality businesses following a period of more stable pricing.
He said: “Resilience is now under renewed pressure from this latest uptick in food and drink prices, which will squeeze operators’ margins even tighter and force them to look again at menu prices.”
The warning follows comments from Heartwood Collection chief executive Richard Ferrier, who said rising wage and alcohol duty costs could add almost £1.6m to the group’s annual bills, potentially forcing menu price increases.
Pullan added the sector would be hoping for easing inflationary pressures and stronger consumer confidence during the Christmas and New Year trading period.
