Gas rates on the pub contracts we signed rose with them, but electricity quotes have not caught up. For pubs close to renewal, the case for cost certainty has grown.
Market Update
Wholesale gas and power both rose about 17% this fortnight, and traders fear a US strike on Iran after the midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November.
A fortnight ago we said Iran wanted prices high until that vote, and it has kept to that. Ships are still being hit around the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis say they struck Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil refinery, and Brent crude has risen from about $106 to $114 a barrel.
Prices eased on Thursday after reports the US wrote to Iran to restart talks, but an Iranian official dismissed Qatar’s latest draft.
Gas has risen faster than oil. Europe’s stores have levelled off at about 75%, the lowest for the time of year since records began in 2011, while Qatar’s gas exports are still badly disrupted. With so little in reserve, a cold snap or fresh attack could lift prices quickly.
Storms Austen and Boelo brought strong winds, and the Met Office said a cold spell before February is less likely than normal. But high pressure holds until about Friday 6 November, and calm, frosty days mean less wind power and more gas burned for electricity, just as pubs turn the heating on.
Business Energy Costs
Wholesale gas for November is 8.4p per kWh, more than three times the 2.5p before the war began on 26 February, and electricity is 19.7p against 6.9p.
On the pub contracts we signed, gas rose from 8.2p to 8.8p, about £280 a year more for a pub using 47,000 kWh, typical of those we sign. Electricity barely moved, 29.1p to 29.2p, despite the jump in wholesale power.
| Date | Commodity Cost | Av Unit Rate | Av Standing Charge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 01/10/2026 | 15.3p | 28.5p | £2.64 |
| 14/10/2026 | 16.9p | 29.1p | £3.20 | |
| 28/10/2026 | 19.7p | 29.2p | £4.00 | |
| Gas | 01/10/2026 | 6.3p | 8.0p | £1.08 |
| 14/10/2026 | 7.2p | 8.2p | £0.94 | |
| 28/10/2026 | 8.4p | 8.8p | £0.88 |
Chart: TradingView, 29/10/2026
For pubs close to renewal, the case for cost certainty has grown: prices could move sharply either way around the US vote, and electricity quotes still lag wholesale.
A fortnight ago we suggested licensees six to twelve months out agree a target price with us; next summer’s gas has since risen again, and analysts expect high prices for at least another year even if the war ends, because Europe must refill record-low stores.
The Budget does nothing about this: pubs get more business rates relief from April, but the electricity discount is for manufacturers and the gas standing charge cut is for homes.
Taking Over a Pub
Ofgem has still not ruled on deemed rates, the out-of-contract prices an incoming licensee pays until a contract is in place, so a slow change of tenancy still costs money.
It is worth sorting the supply changeover before you pull your first pint, and if a bill looks wrong, we can check it before you pay.
Contact Us Today
Nationwide Energy offers the support you need to make your next energy contract transition smoother, deal with supplier issues, or review your energy consumption.
Tel: 02476 328995
Email: info@nationwide-energy.co.uk
This update is our commentary on the energy market, prepared from public sources and our own data. It is general information, not advice tailored to your business, and Nationwide Energy accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on its contents.
