Great expectations of uncertainty
It was the most uncertain of times. It was the most certain of times. The nod to Charles Dickens, Morning Advertiser's most famous contributor, is surely appropriate, for the licensed trade faces the most challenging of years. Dickens penned his words when describing the French Revolution, and the trade is facing its own revolution and outcomes that will be as unpredictable in their own way as in any time of turmoil. The uncertainty is everywhere. Licensees confront the prospect of smoking bans in their pubs. A minority of the trade welcomes this, but the overwhelming majority believe it will hit their business hard. Confusing messages from Government increase the anxiety. There's licensing uncertainty too. Shamefully, Government is still unable to reveal the crucial operating guidelines that licensees have been demanding for months. This will be the biggest revolution of all when it finally comes in mid-2005, and no-one can predict whether its effects will be benign or disastrous for the trade. Alcohol consumption and official attempts to discourage it also throw huge clouds of uncertainty over licensees and brewers everywhere. Will the new much-vaunted and hugely overdue Alcohol Strategy aiming to crack down on so-called binge drinking encourage Prohibition-style tendencies in the local authorities' lunatic fringe? The economy holds out only uncertainty too. Tax increases, interest rate rises, and steadying house prices are a cocktail that is sure to discourage consumers. How that plays on the pub trade is another big question that only the next 12 months will reveal. Enough uncertainty. What's sure to happen is that the grip of red tape tightens on the trade and makes the business of doing business harder. Our pubco survey on pages 19-23 demonstrates what a burden Government imposes on the trade. Nothing, it seems, can stop that burden growing. Even fiercer competition is another given. For every retailer that collapses, another takes his place with a more aggressive offer. This year it seems truer than ever that only the best will survive. Good luck indeed!
