A sunny start - storms later?
What's worse, to be dying for a fag, or to be dying?
This salient question, which is posed in a local radio advert, is loaded with special significance this morning. The scene is Cardiff, the date April 2. From today, smoking in public places is banned in Wales.
Luckily for the National Assembly for Wales, it's a warm summery morning at their Cardiff Bay headquarters, which certainly evokes positive fresh-aired feelings. Rhodri Morgan, First Minister for Wales, describes the launch as "a historic day for Wales, and for the future health of the people".
Having been ushered in three months ahead of the English ban amid much fanfare, the landmark legislation is being hailed by some as long overdue, and on a day like this, there are unlikely to be too many people who object to lighting up outside.
In reality, the ban represents licensees' toughest ever challenge, and, from the mood in Cardiff, there is still a fair proportion who expect a number of rainy days to come.
Although Morgan cites the "high support" for the legislation, and close co-operation with the local government authorities, there are mixed feelings among Cardiff's licensees as they open their smoke-free pubs for the first time.
Prepared for the ban
Patrick Davies, 27, licensee of the Queen's Vaults in Cardiff city centre, is a non-smoker, but says he is "totally against" the ban.
"You know what you're getting yourself into when you start running a pub. I knew there would be upsides and downsides," he says philosophically.
Patrick says he feels let down by the local council over what he sees as a lack of planning guidance on outdoor smoking areas.
"The council has been very obstinate and made very little effort. I phoned up and asked for advice on having bins fitted, but they gave me no guidance on what sort of bins."
"Nobody had the foresight to make a decision and stick to it," he said.
"We're a grade II listed building, and had permission refused three times for an awning, but now have finally got it, with a bench, patio and heater."
Patrick is confident that his early preparation will enable him to overcome the potential loss of business, and admits that "the silliest thing to do would be to flout the ban".
"We've spent a lot of time preparing, and we've got darts, pool, and plasma TVs. I feel sorry for people who are just serving food and drink."
Richard Graham, manager of the Wetherspoon-owned Great Western, says it is too early to tell how the ban will affect businesses.
"As a non-smoker, I'm quite in favour to be honest," he says. "I don't think it will have a massive impact on sales because everyone is going at the same time, but only time will tell.
"If you're the sort of person who goes to the pub, are you really going to stop going?"
Richard, who predicts that the ban will create a shift towards more food sales, admits that there could be differing impacts between city and rural pubs.
"City centre pubs will continue to trade well, but those pubs that are the hub of a community could lose if they have no facilities," he comments.
With a pavement licence already in place, the Great Western also has a balcony garden in development, and will briefly close next week for a refit.
Although he is broadly in favour of the ban, Richard agrees that the guidelines on planning permission arrived too late for many licensees.
"They didn't set the legislation in stone until January, which was not far enough in advance. I sit on the Cardiff licensees forum, and some have suffered a real headache with planning delays," he says.
Not enough time
Philip Lay, retail director of Welsh brewer SA Brain, agrees that licensees were left with very little time in which to gear up for the ban, and says the company has been working hard on helping them prepare.
"It's the right time of year for the ban, but undoubtedly more time and more detail would have been better. We had to show support, and we've helped put shelters wherever we can in 85 per cent of our pubs," he says.
"The one thing to come out of Ireland and Scotland is that trade overall goes down, but it's very specific from pub to pub," he adds.
"It's more a market issue than a location one. Great service, great standards and the range of products will determine success."
Acceptance
One Brains pub which has taken this message on board is the Halfway in Cardiff. Claire Smith, who manages the pub, says she is "very pro" the ban, and thinks it will be "a positive thing for the hospitality trade".
"We've been smoke-free since March 23, and have to embrace it for the sake of our staff," she says.
"And we've had no negative feedback at all."
Claire thinks that the ban will signal "a complete and utter turn in the way people see pubs", and she believes that people will accept it without the need for strong arm enforcement.
"We have lots of families coming in, and we'll have more children now.
"We also have young guys coming in to watch sport who are smokers, and they don't mind. If it's not in front of you, you don't think about it," says Claire.
"I'm very confident that trade will remain as it is, it will just switch from wet to dry."
The Halfway has an attractive courtyard area at the back of the pub, and Claire admits that it is lucky not to be landlocked.
However, she says licensees have to be proactive, and cannot afford to bury their heads in the sand.
"It will be difficult for certain styles of pubs, but you can't ignore
it, and have to put in place as many positive aspects as you can," Claire explains.
April 2's exceptional weather means that Cardiff's smokers seem content on the pavements, but the real test will be the rainy days, which, with April now upon us, are certain to be plentiful.
Welsh licensees face an uncertain and tough future, and, with the English ban on July 1 looming ever closer, eyes from across the border will undoubtedly be gazing westwards over the next few months to see how they cope.
What the customers think
Name: Roger Evans
Age: 63
Job: Retired
"I gave up three weeks ago. It's a good thing in one way, but it's going to put people out of work. I'll be going to the pub the same amount, but if people find it hard to give up, they'll stop going to the pub, go to the supermarkets and drink at home. Then you'll get alcoholics."
Name: Liam Ward
Age: 50
Job: Metal polisher
"I imagine I'll be going to the pub less, and Blockbuster and Choices will make a killing as everyone will just get videos and stay at home. It'll hit the pubs hard and they'll lose staff. Why can't we go back to a bar, lounge and smoke room? I know a couple of pensioners who are going to say 'I've been smoking here all my life' and they'll smoke anyway. There'll be loads of court cases, and in a year, it'll be reversed. It should be up to the landlord."
Name: Roger Bluemel
Age: 43
Job: Civil Servant
"I'm a smoker, and I have absolutely no problem with it at all. I was a 40 to 50-a-day smoker, but our local rugby club, where I spend evenings, banned it. I would have smoked about 15 or 16 of an evening but now only pop outside once or twice. It's immediately going to make a difference to my tobacco consumption. You do it because everyone else is doing it."
Name: Phillip Harvey
Age: 49
Job: Steel Worker
"It's the best thing that's ever happened health wise. Your clothes won't stink every time you go home, and it will make people go to the pub more. Eventually, people will accept it, and business will balance itself out. It'll take time, but it's a good thing to get rid of it. It should have happened
